Green is an AOI to watch long term!

Orange is an AOI that could develop!

Red is an AOI that is developing or has developed!

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We still have an nice uplift of MJO for the next several days as this does increase moisture for Tropical development.  I have 3 AOI with really only 2 to watch.

AOI #1 located in the BOC we need to watch this very close to see if shear drops enough to allow this to develop.  A surface low is nearly already closed and development could occur in a few days as it slowly drifts North in low steering.  This is embedded within a trough extending into the Atlantic.  We need to watch this very close as development is not likely until shear was to drop and Shear is not forecast to drop anytime soon in that area.

AOI #2 located in the SW Caribbean has a nice Low spin with a Surface low forming.  This has a good chance of developing into a Tropical Depression withing 48hrs.  Shear is under 20kts and forecast to improve in time to the north where shear is very high.  Vorticity at 850mb is not great as it appears the higher Vorticity is in the Pacific side.  We might see a fight in the Pacific and Caribbean with neither winning out again.  Steering is very light and a drift to the WNW is likely over the next few days or a more West move is possible in the light steering and move inland.  Its really hard to say in the light steering as seen in the graphics above.  The chances of this becoming a Tropical Depression over the next 24 hours is possible.  This needs to be monitored very close as the long terms progess for develpment is at most 50% over the next few days.  

AOI #3 located in the Central Atlantic is a simply an area to monitor as it approaches the Islands.  There is an Area of Low pressure as eveident with the 850mb vorticity graphic.  Shear is very high in the area but, conditions should improve as it move WNW toward the Islands.  Development is not likely during the next 24hrs but, should be watched over the long term with improving condtions ahead.

Here are the defintions of a SubTropical Storm and of an ExtraTropical Storm:

Extratropical cyclone

Extratropical cyclones, sometimes called mid-latitude cyclones or wave cyclones, are a group of cyclones defined as synoptic scale low pressure weather systems that occur in the middle latitudes of the Earth (outside the tropics) having neither tropical nor polar characteristics, and are connected with fronts and horizontal gradients in temperature and dew point otherwise known as "baroclinic zones".[1] Extratropical cyclones are the everyday phenomena which, along with anticyclones, drive the weather over much of the Earth, producing anything from cloudiness and mild showers to heavy gales and thunderstorms.

Subtropical cyclone

A subtropical cyclone is a weather system that has some characteristics of a tropical and an extratropical cyclone. As early as the 1950s, meteorologists were unclear whether they should be characterized as tropical or extratropical cyclones. They were officially recognized by the National Hurricane Center in 1972. Subtropical cyclones began to receive names off the official tropical cyclone lists in the Atlantic Basin and the southwest Indian ocean.

There are two definitions currently used for subtropical cyclones. Across the north Atlantic and southwest Indian ocean, they require central convection fairly near the center and a warming core in the mid-levels of the troposphere. Across the eastern half of the northern Pacific, they require a mid-tropospheric cyclone to cut off from the main belt of the westerlies and only a weak surface circulation. Subtropical cyclones have broad wind patterns with maximum sustained winds located farther from the center than typical tropical cyclones, and have no weather fronts linked into their center.

Since they form from initially extratropical cyclones which have colder temperatures aloft than normally found in the tropics, the sea surface temperatures required for their formation are lower than the tropical cyclone threshold by 3°C (5°F), lying around 23 °C (73 °F). This also means that subtropical cyclones are more likely to form outside the traditional bounds of the hurricane season.

Thanks,
Tim