TampaSpins TROPICAL WEATHER ANALYSIS

Green is an AOI to watch long term!

Orange is an AOI that could develop!

Red is an AOI that is developing or has developed!

 MJO Forecast

 Sea Surface Temperatures or SST's 

 Shear Map

 Current Shear

Shear Map Right Click open a new window to loop.....

 Steering Layer 700-850mb or
1000mb pressure 45kt storms

 Steering Layer 500-850mb or
990-999mb pressure 45-60kt storms

 Steering Layer 400-850mb or
970-989mb/60-90kts storms

 Steering Layer 300-850mb or 
950-969mb pressure 90-112kt storms

Steering Layer 250-850mb or 
940-949mb pressure 112-122 kt storms

Steering Layer 200-700mb or
940mb pressure 122 kt and larger storms

850mb Vorticity 

 700mb Vorticity

 500mb Vorticity

200mb Vorticity

 Upper Divergence

 Lower Convergence

 SAHARAN AIR LAYER

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Data provided by National Data Buoy Center

 National Weather Service 3 day Forecast....Click to Zoom..

 GFS Model

 GFSx MODEL

 NAM MODEL

 NAM MODEL 

 GFS Long Range Model Forecast Animation

Right click to open different views and loops....

 From the NHC:  Right click to open a new window!

Atlantic - Caribbean Sea - Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Weather Outlook        (en Español*)

Tropical Weather Discussion

 Gulf of Mexico analysis:

Tropical development is not expected in this area in the next 24hrs. 

An AOI #1 to watch is located in the GOM in the BOC near 20N 94W!  A surface low has developed in the BOC.  If you look at the 850mb Vorticity it is showing there along with very strong Convergence and Divergence is apparent.  The latest QuikScat imiage also shows a surface low.  It is nearly closed!  The only thing that will hinder this from developing will be shear.  Shear appears to be slightly above 20kts.  It is still attached to a tail of a stalled trough in the GOM that is not moving much.  Looking at the CyclonePhase it does appear to be Warm Core already.  With the strong shear i believe it will improve some in the initial stages but, will have a hard time to wrap storms around with the shear.  It is located in very weak steering as it should drift very slow to the North generally.  I believe the structure will improve but, will have a difficult time developing much in the next 24hrs.   This will be monitored very close!   

 Caribbean and Bahamas Anylysis:

Tropical development is not expected in this area in the next 24hrs! 

North West Atlantic Anaylsis:

Tropical development is possible in this area in the next 24hrs. 

I do have an AOI #3 in this area.  Yes i did get this first before anyone on WeatherUnderground.  But, that makes no difference.  The process of a SupTropical system has started and we could see a Named storm by Monday as a SubTropical Storm.  Could this become a true warm core Tropical system?  The CyclonePhase analysis shows this approaching as a Warm core system and then turns back to cold core as it gets caught up in a trough and moves out.  This has the potential to become a strong storm.  The really only factor hurting development is the very cold waters it is within and that does not improve.  This will not move much in the next 4-5 days as it tries to transition into a warm core system.  A trough should keep this away from the NE Coast with no threat except shipping.  This will be fun to watch and interesting to see if it can make it to a warm core system.

  

 Central Atlantic Anylysis:

Tropical Development is possible in this area in the next 24hrs. 

Watch AOI #3 with my analysis above.  I put in the in the NW Atlantic section because that it the direction it will be moving.  Elsewhere nothing expected in this area in the next 24hrs.

Eastern Atlantic:

Tropical development is not expected in this area in the next 24hrs. 

Cape Verde season is about done.  This area is not likely to be a threat any longer!   

Right Click on the Below Satellite Links and open a new window!

Atlantic - Wide View

West Atlantic      Central Atlantic        East Atlantic

Gulf of Mexico        Caribbean              East Coast

NW Atlantic           North Atlantic          NE Atlantic

 2009 Named Storms:

Ana, Bill, Claudette, Danny, Erika, Fred, Grace, Henri, Ida, Joaquin, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor, Wanda

IN SIMPLE TERMS TampaSpins ANALYSIS:

Areas of Interest (AOI)  

Green is an AOI to watch long term!

Orange is an AOI that could develop!

Red is an AOI that is developing or has developed!

The return of MJO has arrived and will last another 2 weeks. I have 3 AOI to watch.  The first and of most concern it AOI #1 located in the BOC.  We need to watch this very close to see if shear drops enough to allow this to develop.  A surface low is nearly already closed and development could occur in a few days as it slowly drifts North in low steering.  AOI #1 should be labeled an Invest probably late today in my opinion.  AOI #2 is just something to watch as models have been hinting for something in that area.  AOI #3 will likely become our next named storm "IDA" in 48hrs as a SubTropical system trying its best to gain some warm core feel.  The furture Ida will have a hard time making it to warm core in the cool waters but, this will be interesting to watch as it poises no threat to the ConUs. 

Nothing Active --  No current active systems. 

FOR THE LASTEST FROM THE NHC RIGHT CLICK THE LINKS BELOW AND OPEN A NEW WINDOW:

Public Advisory    Aviso Publico    Forecast/Advisory

Forecast Discussion    Wind Speed Probabilities

Location: 0°N 0°W

Models

BAMD BAMM BAMS

 No areas currently active Tropical Prediction Analysis for analysis!

Below are some links you might like for helping your own analysis:

Here is also a link to a WORLD ATLAS (right click to open a new window) to help with the Names of the Islands.

Here are the short range Computer models (right click to open a new window)  to observe Items of Interest to develop.  It is that time of year when all should have the Hurricane Kits and plans into place.

Use the GFS LONG RANGE MODEL (right click to open a new window) to view possible development in a 14 day forecast cycle run.   

Here is a link to to my Tab with WEATHER LINKS!  This will give you everything you need in one spot!

Click the Tab at the top TROPICAL WX GRAPHICS a full Section of Tropical Graphics!

Look at this This is my Favorite LOOP!  It is my favorite for viewing the Tropics.  

This link (right click and open a new window) Tropical Prediction Analysis gives you my analysis for storms that have potential for development.  There is also a Tab at the top for the Link!  Remember to right Click to open a new window!  It's often very hard to take emotions out of developing or non-developing systems. So, i designed my own model to predict the potential development of systems with some subjective inputs and some non-subjective inputs to calculate the average conditions above or below conditions for development.

Remember the National Hurricane Center are the Professionals and release complete updates at 11 and 5 on the hour and partial updates at 2 and 8 on the hour if needed. Also, the NHC identifies the Tropical Season from JUNE 1st THRU NOVEMBER 30th!

PLEASE BECOME A MEMBER AND COMPLETE THE INSTANT MESSENGER AT MY OWN WEATHER SITE FOR ALL YOUR NEEDS.  ITS A QUICK WAY TO SEE WHO IS ONLINE FOR INTERACTION WITH OTHERS!

Thanks for visiting!  Make sure you visit my Website for all your Weather needs at :  http://tampaspinsweather.webs.com/

Thanks,
Tim