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tropics getting Active..
Posted: (July 29, 2010 08:12 pm)
As you can see, 2 invest at this time. Why the pick up in Activity? well, the MJo is ina favorable/neutral state.. Generally speaking, you want the MJO in phases 8,1,2,3ish... for favorable conditions.. ,6,7,8 are hostile for atlantic devolopment and Circle of death is nuetral for development int he ATlantic... Between that, La nina Shear condtions in the atlantic basin ( very little shear) , and a pick in in ITCZ activity being pushed mroe North, puts Atlantic in favorable conditions as you can see in the pics below.
As you can see The MJO will be in a neutral condtions /favorable for the upcoming week or so... As long as it's not hostile, activity can kick up..
And finally, day 6 shear map.. Throughout the week, shear will pretty much look like this:
So as you can see, things are looking to come together. Now lets see what mother nature has in store.Another thing i want to point out is the fact thaf we're starting to get into the typical busiest months (Aug and Sept).. another thing to look at is that wavelengths in troughing and ridging will ever so slowly become sharper as we get to Autumn. SO the chances of a storm being picked up by an approaching trough(which they like to do, Wildweather will back me up on that) starts to increase as each week passes.
Enjoy the break in the heat til then. I know i will.!
Comments On This Blog Article
[Online]
it also
Posted: July 31, 2010 02:34 am by: noreastero93
means we get at least clipped with the storms if not hit pretty hard obviously depending on size
[Offline]
hope your right wildweather
Posted: July 30, 2010 03:56 pm by: icemancometh
~100-150 miles off shore means HUGE barrels for NJ...the 10-15 ft. kind which make for outstanding surfing w/ offshore winds. i have my quiver of sticks waxed and standing at the ready!
[Offline]
Oh The Sharp Trough Game
Posted: July 29, 2010 09:24 pm by: WildWeather
Now the question is where does the trough that steers tropical systems north going to be.
Will it be in the Central Atlantic? = I say no to this
Will it be 150 miles off? = I say well yes to this for now
Will a trough shift to the east coast allowing for tropical systems to track up the east coast? = I also say yes to this.?
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