Posted: (March 03, 2010 11:26 am)
BLOG IN MOTION...
BLOG SONG....JUMP AROUND (House of Pain)
Pack it up, pack it in, let SPRING begin
I came to win, battle me that's THE PATTERN WILL SIN
I won't ever slack up, punk you better back up
Try and play the role and yo the whole crew'll act up
Get up, stand up (c'mon!) c'mon throw your hands up
If you've got the feeling, jump across the ceiling
Muggs lifts a funk flow, someone's talking junk
About the models to and flow
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This is my favorite time of the year. Spring is teasing us in a few weeks, St Patty Day, late season spring snowstorm, Baseball season knocking at the door, March Madness (Cuse #1 ya'll). It's almost time to start jumping in the streets as we wrap up the winter.... but is it really over yet ? NOT JUST YET. I do see one more storm in the next three the question will be WHERE ? WHEN ? and HOW MUCH ?
The Models will JUMP AROUND the next few weeks as the pattern starts to change and we switch over from winter to spring. This can be a very challenging time for a forecaster. You have to deal with model madness, surface temps, extra moisture off the southern run to spring, and the idea that March can bring anything. This is a month that can bring snow and severe weather in the same week and later this month we might see that.
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EL NINO UPDATE...
Nearly all models predict decreasing SST anomalies in the Niño-3.4 region through 2010, and
model spread increases at longer lead times. Nearly half of the models indicate the 3-month
Niño-3.4 SST anomaly will drop below +0.5°C around April-May-June 2010, indicating a transition to
ENSO-neutral conditions during Northern Hemisphere spring. However, predicting the timing of this
transition is highly uncertain.
El Niño impacts are expected to last into the Northern Hemisphere spring, even as equatorial SST
departures decrease, partly due to the typical warming that occurs between now and April/May.
Expected impacts during February-April 2010 include drier-than-average conditions over Indonesia and
enhanced convection over the central equatorial Pacific Ocean, which will likely expand eastward and
influence portions of the eastern tropical Pacific, as well as coastal sections of Peru and Ecuador. For the
contiguous United States, potential El Niño impacts include above-average precipitation for the southern
tier of the country, with below-average precipitation in the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley. Below average
snowfall and above-average temperatures are most likely across the northern tier of states
(excluding New England), while below-average temperatures are favored for the south-central and
southeastern states.
This means that the storms will pump eastward into the Mid Atlantic for the rest of the month with below normal temps once again. Expect the parade of storms to continue but will one catch the Colder Air at the right time ?
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Like a St. Patty's Day Parade...let the fun continue....will it be green or white...or both...
This is a 3-7 day map from the Hydro Prediction Center in DC. Look at the last map, see the LOW in Kansas, see the HIGH over ND and Canada. These two features must match up perfectly on the East Coast to get a March Nor'easter. The match.com of weather has be a pefect fit !
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Arctic Oscillation
Pretty easy to look at the index above and see why Philly had 80" of snow this season. The Lower the number the better chance we had of Arctic Air. Look at the dates where the numbers were off the charts (negative side that is). We had storms Dec 18th (-4 or lower)....Feb 5-6 Feb 9-10 Feb 25-26 were all in the -4 or lower group so you can see why these big storms happen.
POSITIVE (+) NUMBER NEGATIVE (-) NUMBER
We have been in the (-) just about all winter and this winter has been the lowest number ever recorded. This was just one factor why we had the record winter....Periods of repeated cold driving down into the Mid Atlantic region.
WHERE IS THE RECORD BREAKING ARCTIC OSCILLATION GOING NOW ?
The graph above shows us in a break right now as we slide toward the (+) or neutral side. This is why we had rain today and this storm was not really a snow maker. We had leftover stale cold air to work with on this storm. This made the storm rather flat. It's kinda like ordering a cheesesteak on a stale roll...it's just ain't gonna work for ya.
What we see is the return to colder on or about March 9th. This should hold for about a week or so. It will not be as intense as December and February but it will show up once again.
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NAO Oscillation
The NAO index or North Atlantic Oscillation is like the traffic cop of weather. This weather cop decides whether to slow down the speed of the storms or send them out to sea. If you slow down a storm it can gather more moisture, retain the cold and well big one heck of a snowstorm from Boston to DC.
The weather cop slowed down most storms this season and allowed that abundant Arctic Air to feed into the moisture filled storms. Throw in EL NINO and the tap of 3 bodies of water (Pacific, Gulf, Atlantic) and you have a recipe for many many BIG STORMS this winter.
Weather is like a puzzle and the more pieces you can put together the bigger the storm can grow. I'm not sure we'll see a winter like this for some time, everything had to be perfect and it was over and over again.
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Gonzaga!!!
Posted: (March 04, 2010 11:21 pm) by: tabbylouie23@verizon.net
I think they are a scrappy team and they always seem to be in the tournament at the end. I'm a La Salle grad and still support my Explorers,but we won't be in this year.
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Very good conversation on this article!
Posted: (March 04, 2010 12:45 pm) by: michaelwmoss
Not to mention a Negative EPO and a Positive PNA allowed for the big pacific storms to hit that Western Ridge, Split into, One Piece go south while the other goes North. Hence this was another reason for the clippers and cold air to come down from the north and then the southern riders pull into the Gulf Coast and then the 2 storms play "Beat you to the East Coast". Depending on how they have phased back together again has determined as well how bad the storms have been in the East this winter!
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LOL
Posted: (March 04, 2010 09:14 am) by: snobunny
... 'cheesesteak on a stale roll'... funny! Thanks for dummy-ing it down to a level even I can understand. :-)
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rob
Posted: (March 03, 2010 01:19 pm) by: jspang
Can you please show what the AO and NAO are predicted to be rest of the month? I'm especially interested in the 15th-19th timeframe. I'm sure you will get to it in your blog.
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Nearing the end...
Posted: (March 03, 2010 01:15 pm) by: JudyInNJ
of this horrible (IMHO) snowy season, I just want to say
THANK YOU, ROB!!
I'm glad to have found you on the internet & very pleased to report that "Rob Guarino says" is now like a household word around here again!
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lester
Posted: (March 03, 2010 12:48 pm) by: FSU-WENNER
I cant beleive someone got all that press time for such a bogus prediction.
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Storm next week
Posted: (March 03, 2010 12:48 pm) by: WeatherNutz
That so called lakes cutter lol yeah right..Miller B on the way
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March Madness
Posted: (March 03, 2010 12:25 pm) by: Victor
is my favorite time in all college sports!! If they would do something like a bracket for college football, I would like that even more!
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40" of snow!!?
Posted: (March 03, 2010 12:14 pm) by: Babsty
What's up with Lester Moyer's March 7 prediction of 40" of snow???
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Outlook
Posted: (March 03, 2010 12:12 pm) by: PHL.Air.Traffic
Rob, after this month, what do you expect as we roll into spring? Hope it's not another repeat of last spring (cool and rainy). Thanks!! Great site as always...
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Just 1 more please
Posted: (March 03, 2010 11:50 am) by: MarybuggyinDE
And then we can possibly be done with snow til end of year.
Or...
Posted: (March 03, 2010 11:42 am) by: TSalad
Bring on SOFTBALL!!! :)
No more white on my field please!!! :)
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