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Posted: (February 08, 2010 07:04 am)
Here we GO AGAIN.. The 50 year pattern continues and we already see our snow storm taking shape over the central part of the country
We have a weak low developing over NE texas where a +4C degree temperature gradient exists... TO the north is an SW riding out of the northern plains which will phase and drag our storm system towards the north.
The only difference between this storm and the weekend storm is the type of storm we are dealing with. Unlike the dec and jan storms.. this storm will be a Miller B type of system that will track into southern PA and pop a coastal low fairly quickly. There is a tramendous amount of model support for this storm.. However there remains a few questions:
1. Exact Intensity of the storm... (determines the wind speed blizzard vs just high winds)
2. Track of the storm... Does it bomb out and move out .. or bomb out and move up. This will determine the amount of Warm Air advection
3. upper level support
Below is my first call... I've taken into account the GFS and NAM verticle profiles... and the WAA associated with the storm. More details tonight...
Here's my 1st call on the system.
ENSEMBLES
Comments On This Blog Article
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This morning's runs
Posted: (February 08, 2010 11:45 am) by: bumblesbounce
12z NAM
DC, Balt. Dover, Vineland: 14 - 22"
LV N. Jersey: 9 - 13"
12z GFS
DC, Balt. Dover, Vineland: 13 - 20"
LV N. Jersey: 6 - 9"
Looks like another bust for areas north of Philly, and another hammering for areas south.
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Nam?
Posted: (February 08, 2010 08:08 am) by: MascoWeather
Not on board.. it's the most intense model with dynamic features.. it's a sub 980 low.. The model agreement is there.. we have to see how the storm evolves..
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Yes But ..
Posted: (February 08, 2010 07:59 am) by: JcWeather
The NAM is not on board yet, it still shows 6-8 inches only.
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Miller B's
Posted: (February 08, 2010 07:47 am) by: GalvestonSurge
Do remember that both the December 19th storm and the blizzard of 1996 were both Miller B storms. I'm not insinuating that this one will be anything close to those but the pattern can be a productive one. I'm a bit more skeptical about this one but still see a good 8-16" for most of the area.
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It that
Posted: (February 08, 2010 07:42 am) by: aic276
Paisley, or a bunch of ensembles? Here's hoping your call is right for this storm.
My request:
Posted: (February 08, 2010 07:39 am) by: Saddlegait
Keep the deep southeast posted with this one. There is a chance we may get the backside of this storm. They are calling for rain/snow mix on Friday - as long as it's mixed, we're good.
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This is a great first call...
Posted: (February 08, 2010 07:35 am) by: DocTooch
better to err on the lower end of things (as if 12-18 is a low amount) than higher - Miller B's often have trouble giving us huge precip amounts. I like it.
I dunno
Posted: (February 08, 2010 07:17 am) by: Geekwitch
South Philly may not be able to handle this... Saturday was a blast - I was watching cars get stuck on 8th Street all day!
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if everything fell
Posted: (February 08, 2010 07:10 am) by: FSU-WENNER
into place perfectly, could these go higher?
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