Posted: (November 11, 2009 06:25 pm)
I would first like to welcome everyone back and also a warm welcome to all the new members in 2009. It has been an interesting fall and the hurricane season, or lack there of. It is a true indication of an "El Nino" on the rise. This will be a long read and as usual grab a bit to eat or your favorite beverage and get comfy. I'm enjoying a nice glass of petite sirah from California. Since most of the storms this winter will come from Cali I thought I start us off right this winter season. Get right to the source right ?
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WEBSITE NAME CHANGE
We'll take care of a few things non-weather related first than move onto the good stuff, “The Winter Outlook". The name of the site had to change because we ran into some legal issues with another company with myweather in it so for now this will be the title. Don't worry if you forget the name all of the old site names lead to here.
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I'M MOVING BACK TO PHILADELPHIA
I will be moving back to the Philadelphia area in a few months. This is for "family reasons". My father has been ill and I need to be closer to my kids. Family trumps career for me and this was a decision I thought about months. I do have a few things in the works and I will let you know of all of them once it all comes together. The station here out west has been very good about all this so the transition to moving back east should be pretty easy.
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GOING VIDEO
This is something I wanted to do since the start of this site about 2 yrs ago and this may be the winter to try out VIDEO BLOGS for you. We are throwing some things around like to charge a small fee a month for the video blogs and keep the ones that you are reading now FREE. I’ll keep ya posted on this. For now we'll keep the blogs like they have been the last two winter seasons.
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THE 2009-2010 WINTER OUTLOOK
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I did approach things a little different for this winter outlook. I did get a chance to interview some of the big wigs at NOAA who study the EL NINO patterns, PDO and all the other good stuff. I got a better understanding how this all related to the entire winter pattern ahead. Boy you can twist numbers and past patterns so many ways but you must keep focus of the fundamentals of weather and how the how thing works.
My outlook is for a Moderate El Nino this winter and that is not a bad thing. I already hear in mid November how some forecasters are already giving up on a winter because they hear the word El Nino. El Nino will bring more precip in bigger storms the question as usual will be...where is the cold air and can we get that big HIGH to stay for a mini vacation in the Canadian Maritimes to pump some cold air along the East Coast.
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EL NINO (SOUTHERN OSCILLATION)
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Yeah I know it looks like mom's pasta on a Sunday afternoon but the idea here is that the JMA (Japan Model) is calling for a STRONG out of control EL Nino while the Euro models are right on track. If you follow the OND outlook on the bottom of the graph that is where we are this month. The number we are at is 1.5c or 3f above normal on the sea surface temps. The maroon square to the purple UKMO are right on track in making this develop quickly into a Moderate El Nino. This track record of the Euros and UKMET and others is important because they are GOOD mid and long range models. I see no changes to the EL NINO forecast at this point.
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Expect the storms this winter to come from the map above. Warm, El Nino driven moisture from the sub tropical and tropical JET and cold air being injected from Alaska. The storm track should follow a Cali-AZ-NM-TX track and that will make for some mud slides in Southern California, Big Winter snow in the Colorado/NM Mtns and 1-3 ice storms in the Dallas Metroplex.
The track after that is where this all gets tricky. I do think we get 2-3 decent snow events of 4" or more with this pattern but we'll also get the share of a few Lake Cutters, or storms that go up the Ohio Valley and we get the sloppy mix to some rain.
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THE PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation)
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is important as well, but scientists don't know as much about it as other climate patterns. In fact, some researchers argue that the PDO is not its own climate oscillation, but simply ENSO fluctuating on a much longer time scale.
In any case, the PDO is similar to ENSO, though on a time scale of decades instead of seasons. It is marked by fluctuating sea surface temperatures in the north-central Pacific as well as near the Gulf of Alaska.
The PDO mainly affects weather patterns in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. This was especially true of the two PDO events that occurred in the 20th century and lasted 20 to 30 years. One phase of the PDO is called the "cold" phase, the other the "warm" phase.
Not all of the weather that the USA and the world experiences is a result of large-scale global climate oscillations, but if you looked down your snowy driveway last winter in the Northeast, or marvel about how rainy it is in Florida one spring, chances are that one, or more, of these global climate patterns is hard at work
Since the discovery of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, scientists have found several other important global and regional climate patterns, including the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the closely linked North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). There are other global climate patterns, such as the Pacific-North American Oscillation (PNA) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), among others, but less is known about these oscillations, and they typically have less of an impact on global weather.
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THE AO or Arctic Oscillation
The Arctic Oscillation (AO) has a significant influence on winter weather in the U.S. — the northern and eastern U.S., especially — as well as Western Europe. Recent research has also demonstrated a link between the AO and tropical cyclone formation during the Atlantic hurricane season.
The AO refers to a seesaw pattern in atmospheric pressure between the polar regions and the middle latitudes. It fluctuates on a different time scale than ENSO, on the order of weeks and months, though it also shows some tendency to favor one phase or another for years at a time.
The AO features a negative (cold) phase, which brings higher-than-normal pressure over the polar regions and lower-than-normal pressure over the middle latitudes; the positive (warm) phase brings the opposite conditions.
Most climate scientists consider the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to be a regional manifestation of the AO. In short, they both refer to the same climate phenomenon. When the AO/NAO are in their positive phase, much of the U.S. experiences mild winter weather; when the AO/NAO are in their negative phase, much of the U.S., especially the North and East, experiences cold and stormy (often snowy) weather.
The AO will swing back anf forth this and be tied into the PDO and NAO. I expect the coldest weather to be February and March compared to daily temps. This means February will be the coldest month and March below normal
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NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation)
Most climate scientists consider the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to be a regional manifestation of the AO. In short, they both refer to the same climate phenomenon. When the AO/NAO are in their positive phase, much of the U.S. experiences mild winter weather; when the AO/NAO are in their negative phase, much of the U.S., especially the North and East, experiences cold and stormy (often snowy) weather.
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is important as well, but scientists don't know as much about it as other climate patterns. In fact, some researchers argue that the PDO is not its own climate oscillation, but simply ENSO fluctuating on a much longer time scale.
I expect the NAO to be Negative or favorable for the biggest snowstorm of the season from Jan 25 to Febraury 18th. February 1-18th is the greatest risk for a 6" or more storm with a 40% chance of a 12" or more snowstorm this coming winter.
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THE NOAA PREDICTION THIS WINTER...
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So we now know the variables this winter,....Moderate El Nino....PDO that will bring pulses of warm weather to the Upper Midwest and fuel the Southern Cali Cruisers. the Arctic Oscillation that will peak with the coldest air in February. NAO that will bounce early in the season to the negative side but an overall drop for favorable snow in February.
Slap all this together throw in the 8 ball, scrapple, cheesewiz and you get the winter outlook. I do like to thank the NWS in Philly and Tony Gigi for the research below on the Snowfall for different El Nino/La Nina winters.
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| WINTER... DC, BLT, PHL, NYC BOS | ||||
| DATE | TEMPS | +/- change | PRECIP | NOTES |
| DECEMBER | NORMAL | EVEN TEMPS | MIXED PRECIP/RAIN | SMALL WET SNOW EVENTS, RAIN & WIND COAST |
| JANUARY | SLIGHTLY BELOW | 0-2 BELOW NORM | SNOW/FLURRIES | COLDER, A FEW 1-3" SNOW EVENTS |
| FEBRUARY | BELOW NORMAL | 1-3 BELOW NORM | BEST SHOT OF STORM | BEST CHANCE OF SNOW AS PATTERN CHANGES |
| MARCH | BELOW NORMAL | 2-4 BELOW NORM | SNW SHWERS/FLURRY | WET SNOW STORM MARCH 1-10TH POSSIBLE |
| OVERALL | BELOW NORMAL | 2-3 BELOW NORMAL | ABOVE AVG SNOW | MOST PLACES WILL END 5-10" ABOVE NORMAL THIS WINTER |
| CITY | SNOW TOTAL | |||
| PHILADELPHIA CITY | 26-30" | |||
| PHILLY N & W (mannyunk) | 27-31" | |||
| KOP AREA N & W Burbs | 28-33" | |||
| LOWER BUCKS/MONTCO | 28-33" | |||
| UPPER BUCKS/MONTCO | 28-34" | |||
| LOWER CHESTER/DELCO | 24-28" | |||
| UPPER CHESTER CO PA | 25-29" | |||
| TRENTON AREA | 21-26" | |||
| SNJ TURNPIKE (N & W) | 22-26" | |||
| INTERIOR SNJ | 19-24" | |||
| SNJ BCH... LBI-CAPE MAY | 18-23" | |||
| DELAWARE WILM-SMYNRA | 20-25" | |||
| SMYRNA TO FENWICK ISL | 15-20" | |||
| LANCASTER TO READING | 24-29" | |||
| READING TO ALLENTOWN | 24-29" | |||
| POCONOS REGION | 34-39" | |||
| CENTRAL NJ | 22-26" | |||
| NORTH JERSEY (NEWARK) | 24-28" | |||
| NYC METRO (5 BOROUGHS) | 24-28" | |||
| NASSAU COUNTY | 20-24" | |||
| SUFFOLK COUNTY NY | 19-23" | |||
| SW CONN. | 24-29" | |||
| BOSTON METRO | 27-32" | |||
| LOWER HUDSON VALLEY | 24-29" | |||
| MID HUDSON VALLEY | 24-29" | |||
| BALTIMORE CITY | 19-23" | |||
| BALTIMORE N & W | 24-28" | |||
| EASTERN SHORE LOWER | 16-20" | |||
| EASTERN SHORE UPPER | 18-22" | |||
| DC METRO | 22-26" | |||
| VIRGINIA BURBS OF DC | 23-27" | |||
| N & W OF DC METRO | 24-28" | |||
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Re: Flyersgirl
Posted: (November 24, 2009 02:31 pm) by: skipblue
First of all, from a purely statistical standpoint, mid Novembers are followed by a warmer than normal Winter (in the Mid Atlantic) around 65 percent of the time according to DC area weatherman Bob Ryan. And, contrary to your contention, the air in Alaska is currently much warmer than normal right now. Furthermore, the snow cover in Eurasia is near normal for this time of year while the snow and ice cover in Canada is well below normal. So, I would be very surprised if we have a colder than normal Winter. I might add that even when the Northern Branch of the Jet Stream makes a dip into the Mid-Atlantic (during the Winter months) the temps are rarely exceptionally cold especially in the DC area and South. The old "Alberta Clipper" just isn't what it used to be.
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Skipblue
Posted: (November 23, 2009 09:01 pm) by: Flyersgirl
Did you read Rob's write up and explanation? All oceanic indices are pointing to a colder than normal winter. We have a moderate somewhat westerly El Nino, cold air in Alaska, a cool pool in Newfoundland, a larger than normal snow cover in Eurasia, and so on. All of these things mean colder than normal. Warm Novembers do not mean a warmer winter. November is Autumn not winter, there are different patterns at play here. Also global warming doesn't mean we necessarily get warmer in Philly.
Ultimately we don't know until it happens but Rob's logical is far more sound that what your comment suggests.
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It's going to be a milder Winter than your forecast
Posted: (November 23, 2009 12:35 pm) by: skipblue
Although I don't think that the Winter of 2009-2010 is going to be exceptionally warm, I think that it will end up being a rather mild one with lots of variability. First of all, this has been a mild Nov., and a warm Nov. is, more times than not, followed by a mild Winter. Furthermore, the Northern branch of the Jet Stream has been locked in a "Winter like" pattern for about 2 years; the law of averages tells you that this pattern is bound to break sometime in the near future. And finally, after a 4 year hiatus in the Eastern US, we're likely to start feeling the effects of Global Warming again. Remember the Winter of 2005-2006.....it was the warmest Winter on record for Canada and the 3rd warmest Winter for the US. I might add that the record warmth wasn't predicted in the long-term outlooks.
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Thanksgiving
Posted: (November 21, 2009 08:29 am) by: pdicrecc
Is anybody talking about the possible snow storm after Thanksgiving? It's been on the models for the past couple of days and haven't heard anything about it.
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After Thanksgiving....
Posted: (November 17, 2009 03:09 pm) by: pdicrecc
Did anyone see the possible snow storm for the weekend after Thanksgiving? I know it's early but it sure looks nice on the models.
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First off....
Posted: (November 15, 2009 08:00 am) by: Jflyerb1019
My thoughts and prayers are with you and your family. I wish you guys the best.
On a more weather related note, great breakdown of the up coming winter and I hope it comes true. Maybe even a little bit more snow. Welcome back to the right coast. Last winter wasn't the same without you around. Thanks
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Hey Rob sorry to
Posted: (November 13, 2009 08:35 pm) by: weather93
Read your blog so late but im hoping for a white winter and you say it will be one. I forgot all about the blog you posted before about your winter outlook that is why i did not read it earlier because of the distrctions of the coastal storm.
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Thanks Rob
Posted: (November 12, 2009 06:37 pm) by: Schneehase
for the great outlook, and best wishes for your Dad--hope we get to see you doing the weather again in Philly really soon..it just hasn't been the same without you!! Welcome back!!
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Rob
Posted: (November 12, 2009 06:16 pm) by: EagleFan1
your great! Hope your totals will be right. Amazing blog
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I am ready
Posted: (November 12, 2009 06:02 pm) by: 98yanks
to jump on the band wagon!! FSU-Wenner, you comin?! lol
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Welcome back Rob
Posted: (November 12, 2009 03:38 pm) by: Flake
We all knew you wouldn't be able to stay away from us for too long. On a more serious note...family are always the ones there for you when you need them...and you for them. I will keep your family in my thoughts and prayers. Welcome back home and thank you for another great blog.
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Question on Future Collaborations...
Posted: (November 12, 2009 11:31 am) by: RSmitty
Rob (and anyone else that has knowledge)...
Pardon my ignorance if I am missing some info here, but with the other part of your now-defunct, indisputable highest-quality TV weather team now also a free-agent, is there any chance of a re-connect? As I said a long time ago, I have zero clue of how you two got along off-camera, but on-camera, your team-product was unbeatable, let alone your similar desires to connect with the audience (must be a Delaware or U of D thing, of course).
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Welcome Back!
Posted: (November 12, 2009 09:30 am) by: teachergal81
So Good to have you back in the area, and your priorities are admirable! Looking forward to learning more with you again this winter. Thoughts and prayers are with your Dad. Take care.
Paula
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Yep
Posted: (November 12, 2009 09:10 am) by: Snow_Dude
Back for another round of the Mid-Atlantic snow game.
Welcome home Rob!
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BOO BOO
Posted: (November 12, 2009 09:06 am) by: scoopy
It did not feel the same ...last winter with you posting from the left coast ...good to have u back home
im tring to do this from work ....i always mess up
take care Rob........Chris...scoopy
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GREAT
Posted: (November 12, 2009 09:02 am) by: scoopy
Hey Rob .........it did feel the same when u posted from out west......sounds strange but true......bring on the snow.....
will keep you in our prayers
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Feels so good to be back on the Blog!!
Posted: (November 12, 2009 08:46 am) by: Snowdaylover
It was a long summer, but I am glad the snow talk is back! Welcome back to the area Rob! As always, your family is in our thoughts and prayers.
Here we go again
Posted: (November 12, 2009 08:20 am) by: snowgarden
On the wild roller coaster of winter weather! Let's hope for a great ride as we weather the ups and downs. Great to have you back Rob. Here's hoping long overdue dreams come true for you.
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Good read
Posted: (November 12, 2009 08:10 am) by: InsailsWx
now how are we going to see your video blogs in total white out conditions??....LOL:) I don't get alot of winter here on the Gulf Coast but with a moderate El Nino and added moisture we may get our once every ten year snow event...
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Nice
Posted: (November 12, 2009 07:36 am) by: snowlover30
It's rare that someone forecasts more snow in Philly than in Lancaster (where I live) but in the last few winters it has gone that way.
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Welcome Home, Rob
Posted: (November 12, 2009 07:32 am) by: snobunny
I'll read into your return to the area as a sign of impending snowy winter. There... my winter outlook. :-)
Seriously, it will be great to have you back in the area. Get a great, high-profile gig... we need accurate forecasts again!
Thoughts and prayers with your father.
Brenda
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good to see
Posted: (November 12, 2009 07:24 am) by: FSU-WENNER
your post to bring some normalcy to the otherwise chaoitic world on here. I think this is the year of the widow maker!!!
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Welcome Home almost..........
Posted: (November 12, 2009 07:11 am) by: DoverDESnowLover
Hats off to you, hard decision financially but pretty easy knowing the love you have for family! Thoughts and prayers coming your way early and often! If there is ever anything i can do to help please message me!
Let us know when your boots are firmly planted in PA/DE!
Thanks for the outlook, i printed it to study!!!!
Chrissy Take Care
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Rob
Posted: (November 12, 2009 06:36 am) by: Q-Town
My thoughts and prayers are with you and your family.
I hope your Dad will be okay.
Thanks for posting and good luck!
PS.. Welcome back to your weather home :).
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Welcome Home Rob!
Posted: (November 12, 2009 06:33 am) by: icemancometh
Sorry to hear about your father but will keep him in our prayers. Good to see you have your priorities in order, everyone should follow your lead and put family first, career second. Things will shake out back here for you and something will open up for you. Glad to see your coming home. (soft pretzels/tasty kakes/cheese steaks await you!)
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Hey Rob
Posted: (November 12, 2009 05:46 am) by: warminsterman
You know, i was just saying the same thing the other day!!!! LOL. Welcome back, and as usual a great read, and great information. Good luck with eveything, as i'm sure it all works out. Good things to good people. Take care, Joe
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Word up!
Posted: (November 11, 2009 11:50 pm) by: Ballz97FM
Awesome stuff. Sorry to hear about your dad, Rob. He will be in our thoughts, I can guarantee you that. Also hoping you land a gig here in Philly. How I wish Action News would dump that awful, useless AccuWeather and give themselves a big shot in the arm by hiring you!
BTW, one day back in September I suddenly had a premonition about a White Christmas. (I know. It's just a premonition...but those are how AccuWeather comes up with their long-range forecast so why can't I? Haha.)
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hey rob
Posted: (November 11, 2009 11:11 pm) by: joevodvarka
welcome back to the philadelphia area glad to hear that your coming back! I will as well keep you and your family in my prayers. and also great winter forecast I would love for a good winter for a change!
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...
Posted: (November 11, 2009 10:36 pm) by: IceBox
Welcome back Rob. My thoughts and prayers are with you and your family.
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Welcome back Rob
Posted: (November 11, 2009 10:08 pm) by: Sgt_Snow
First, I will keep your father in my prayers. I hope and pray all works out for you personally and professionally.
I am hoping that your move back here will lead you to a postion where we can all learn and see you daily.
Thanks for the detailed outlook. I've enjoyed learning from you and NOW HAVE MY SON INTERSTED (of course he wants the school closing meter turned on).
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Welcome Back
Posted: (November 11, 2009 09:43 pm) by: WildWeather
Oh by the way welcome back!
Yes, I too like many others here will keep you and your family in our prayers.
mmmm a WAWA hoagie can't them out west!!
Don't forget the Tasty Kakes too
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Great Break Down
Posted: (November 11, 2009 09:39 pm) by: WildWeather
I like the break down a lot Rob!!!
I am not going to get too hasty this year I am staying at 18-25 inches at Philadelphia International Airport.
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Ryan...
Posted: (November 11, 2009 09:36 pm) by: RSmitty
...blame Jersey taxes, they lose more off the top than you. lol
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Lower Bucks
Posted: (November 11, 2009 09:24 pm) by: RyanWeatherPA
Whats the difference between Lower Bucks and the Trenton area? You have me getting 28-33" in Bensalem, but nearby Trenton gets only 21-26". Just wondering...Why?
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Wow
Posted: (November 11, 2009 08:59 pm) by: WildWeather
Hello And Welcome Back
I will have to print this one out and read it
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Rob
Posted: (November 11, 2009 08:44 pm) by: irishbri74
Wish you luck on your move back. It will be nice to have you back. Will keep your father in prayers. Nice outlook for winter, im liking the NAO outlook!
We've been doing our best to hold down the blog, making it as exciting as possible. BUt with your return, this place should really get buzzing.
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Jan 25th to feb 18th, most favorable for snowstorm???
Posted: (November 11, 2009 08:33 pm) by: dave
So does this mean we are only going to have 3 weeks of winter this year??? That sucks
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Welcome Back!
Posted: (November 11, 2009 08:32 pm) by: snowmama
We missed you around here and it'll be great to have you back home.
I hope your Dad gets better!
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Welcome back!
Posted: (November 11, 2009 08:25 pm) by: gapsu99
Good to see you back on the site Rob! Seems like just yesterday we were talking about the surprise 8" storm back in February. Hope to see you back on TV in Philly real soon!!!
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Yup...
Posted: (November 11, 2009 08:12 pm) by: RSmitty
...as I see the update just now, it looks a tad familiar from another, previous post. Keep building that hoagie!
Maybe now Kevin (WildWeather) will realize I'm just not all that CrAzY afterall! LOL
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Smitty I am reposting it in here
Posted: (November 11, 2009 08:03 pm) by: robguarinoLWB
This is a massive blog...like a 20 foot wawa hoagie
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Rob...NOAA Outlook...
Posted: (November 11, 2009 08:02 pm) by: RSmitty
Rob, any chance you repost that blog that got honkered up by the URL issue from yesterday that discussed the NOAA outlook? I liked the perspective it offered.
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Welcome back!
Posted: (November 11, 2009 07:07 pm) by: wthrgrrl19711
Glad to hear you're coming back to the area!
Philly or back to DE?
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Video
Posted: (November 11, 2009 07:07 pm) by: quicklava
Hey Rob, why don't you just use youTube for your video blogs and paste the code into this site....that way you don't have to worry about bandwidth!
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WELCOME BACK, G-MAN!
Posted: (November 11, 2009 06:49 pm) by: RSmitty
As I put in my quick-hit blog, what you are doing is honorable and gets nothing but respect from this family. Hopefully a gig will be soon to follow, but definitely admire your priorities.
Now for an equally big priority, paint that outlook with snow and be sincere about it! LOL!
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...And Suddenly...
Posted: (November 11, 2009 06:46 pm) by: RSmitty
it's not a test blog anymore, so I look, well, pretty normal by my standards. D'OH!
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Isn't It Funny...
Posted: (November 11, 2009 06:45 pm) by: RSmitty
...how people still comment on blogs even though they are clearly tests?
Huh? I'm doing it, too?
D'OH!
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