SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK STARTING TO FIRE IN MIDWEST:UPDATED
Posted: (March 10, 2010 01:07 pm)

SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS IN EAST TX, EAST OK, ARK, MISSU , 

BELOW I WILL HAVE MAPS AND DATA TO BE USES BY OUR SPOTTER  AND CHASER COMMUNITIES AS WELL AS ANY INDIVIDUAL. REMEMBER DO NOT STORM CHASE UNLESS U ARE TRAINED TO DO SO . AMATUER STORM CHASING IS DANGEROUS AND MAY BE FATAL IF U DO NOT KNOW WHAT U ARE DOING. STORM SPOTTERS ARE TRAINED TO SPOT NOT CHASE . SOME CHASERS ARE SPOTTERS BUT IT TAKES YEARS OF EXPERIANCE TO BE SAFE IN CHASING . 

DAY 1 OUTLOOK


SPC AC 101627
  
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1027 AM CST WED MAR 10 2010
  
   VALID 101630Z - 111200Z
  
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PORTION  OF THE
   SCENTRAL CONUS/MID AND LWR MS VALLEY......
  
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY LIMITATION ON UPGRADING TO
   A GREATER RISK FOR TODAY AS THE VIGOROUS UPPER LOW NOW TX PANHANDLE
   TRACKS NEWD ACROSS OK TO VICINITY MKC BY 12Z THU.
  
   STRONG MID LEVEL JET MAX OF 80-90KT ACCOMPANIES UPPER LOW ACROSS ERN
   OK INTO SRN MO/NRN AR THIS EVENING. VERY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET
   STREAKS MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN GULF OF MEXICO WILL PROVIDE SHEAR AND
   UPPER DIVERGENCE LOWER MS VALLEY THRU THE PERIOD ENHANCING SEVERE
   POTENTIAL IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN THIS AREA.
  
   COMPLEX RAPIDLY EVOLVING SEVERE SCENARIO AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
   QUICKLY RETURNS AHEAD OF THE ONGOING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS NCENTRAL
   TX. STEEP/COOL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE
   PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER
   SYSTEM...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS ACROSS MUCH
   OF LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
  
   ...ERN SRN PLAINS INTO MID MS VALLEY INCLUDING MO OZARKS...
   SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE INTO SRN MO PRIOR TO
   THE ARRIVAL OF THE VIGOROUS UPPER VORT/WIND MAX TO SUPPORT
   DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONGLY FORCED SQUALL LINE. WITH THE SURFACE LOW
   NOW N OF SPS DEEPENING NEWD ACROSS OK DURING AFTERNOON...SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ERN OK AND THEN MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD
   WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. HAVE INCREASED THE WIND
   POTENTIAL INTO SRN MO/NRN AR AREA.  AN UPGRADE MAY BE JUSTIFIED THE
   SAME AREA IN AFTERNOON UPDATE IF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY CAN RETURN
   MORE THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
  
   ADDITIONALLY GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG
   SHEAR...SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY BOTH WITH AND AHEAD OF THE SQUALL
   LINE.  WITH THE COOL/STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE  UP TO 1000 J/KG
   LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY SUPERCELL ALONG WITH A TORNADO
   POTENTIAL.
  
   ...LWR MS VALLEY...
   MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN IN STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS LOWER
   MS VALLEY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT CENTRAL TX.  WITH STEEP MID LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES...7-8C/KM...OVERSPREADING THE AREA...CONDITIONS ARE NOW
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION QUICKLY WEAKENS. 
  
   WITH 30-35KT LOW LEVEL JET AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR THRU THE
   DAY...ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.
   WITH THE BROAD LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET ACROSS
   NRN GULF DISCRETE STORM ORGANIZATION IS LIKELY ALONG WITH TORNADO
   POTENTIAL.  GIVEN MLCAPES ABOVE 1000 J/KG AND THE STEEP MID LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES LARGE HAIL ALSO LIKELY WITH ANY STRONG
   UPDRAFT...PARTICULARLY SUPERCELLS.
  
   TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE TONIGHT CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS.
   HERE...INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A VORT MAX
   MOVING ENEWD ACROSS THE NRN GULF DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL
   LIKELY SUPPORT A FURTHER INCREASE IN STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION.
  
   ..HALES/GRAMS.. 03/10/2010



day 1 TORNADO OUTLOOK



DAY 1 HAIL




DAY 1 WINDS



DAY 2 OUTLOOK 




DAY 3 OUTLOOK 



MESOSCALE 





  MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0165
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1101 AM CST WED MAR 10 2010
  
   AREAS AFFECTED...EAST TX...ERN OK
  
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 19...
  
   VALID 101701Z - 101830Z
  
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 19
   CONTINUES.
  
   THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS WW 19 WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS NE TX EARLY
   THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT BUT
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. A NEW WW WILL LIKELY
   BE NEEDED EAST OF WW 19 BY 18Z.
  
   THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM A 995 MB SFC LOW IN
   SCNTRL OK SWD TO AROUND DALLAS. THIS CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG THE
   ERN EDGE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET AND IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A BAND OF
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE TX PANHANDLE.
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS INCREASING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE LINE OF
   STORMS WITH SBCAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG FROM SE OK EXTENDING SWD
   ACROSS MOST OF EAST TX. SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS EXPAND THE STORMS
   ACROSS SERN OK SWD ACROSS MOST OF EAST TX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
   STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT ON
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.
   THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS THE STORMS BECOME
   SFC-BASED.
  
   ..BROYLES.. 03/10/2010
  
  
   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...
  
   LAT...LON   35009577 35019631 34139684 32749711 31469727 30669653
               30649587 31089506 31769460 32759469 33889455 34589463

WATCHES







URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 20...CORRECTED
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1150 AM CST WED MAR 10 2010
  
   CORRECTED FOR CST VS CDT
  
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
  
          WESTERN ARKANSAS
          PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
          EASTERN OKLAHOMA
          PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS
  
   EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1150 AM UNTIL
   500 PM CST.
  
   HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
   MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
  
   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
   STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES SOUTH
   SOUTHEAST OF LONGVIEW TEXAS TO 50 MILES NORTHWEST OF FAYETTEVILLE
   ARKANSAS.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
  
   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
  
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 19...
  
   DISCUSSION...INTENSE UPPER TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS OK/N TX THIS
   AFTERNOON WITH RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING AIR MASS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.
    THUNDERSTORMS NOW NCENTRAL TX/SRN OK EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THRU THE
   AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD.  WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
   MLCAPES CLIMBING TO 1000 J/KG...THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS WILL INCREASE.
  
   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
   KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
   MOTION VECTOR 24035.
  
  
   ...HALES


REPORTS

Tornado Reports (in CSV format)
Time		Location	County	State	Lat	Lon	Comments
2222		5 W OZAN	HEMPSTEAD	AR	3385	9381	TREES SNAPPED AND ONE BUILDING SUSTAINED MINOR DAMAGE WITH TREES AND POWERLINES DOWNED ON NEIGHBORING COUNTY ROADS. DAMAGE WAS REPORTED IN THE COMMUNITY OF YANCY WEST O (SHV)
Hail Reports (in CSV format)
Time	Size	Location	County	State	Lat	Lon	Comments
1420	125	GRAHAM	YOUNG	TX	3310	9860	IN GRAHAM...LOTS OF PEAS...SOME MARBLES...FEW HALF DOLLAR (FWD)
1518	100	3 N BOWIE	MONTAGUE	TX	3361	9785	QUARTER-SIZE HAIL REPORTED 3 MILES NORTH OF BOWIE. (FWD)
1550	100	FORT WORTH	TARRANT	TX	3275	9734	REPORTED IN WEST FORT WORTH. (FWD)
1555	100	4 NW KELLER	TARRANT	TX	3297	9730	REPORTED 4 NW KELLER. (FWD)
1616	100	DENTON	DENTON	TX	3322	9715	HWY 380 AND I 35 (FWD)
1623	150	IRVING	DALLAS	TX	3282	9692	WALNUT HILL AND PLEASANT RUN (FWD)
1623	175	BEDFORD	TARRANT	TX	3285	9713	HWY 121 AND 183 CROSSOVER...WALNUT TO GOLF BALLS (FWD)
1827	100	CAMPBELL	HUNT	TX	3315	9595	E50 MPH WINDS ALSO (FWD)
1945	100	TALCO	TITUS	TX	3336	9510	LOCAL FIRE DEPT REPORTS QUARTER SIZED HAIL FALLING IN TALCO. (SHV)
2005	100	SCURRY	KAUFMAN	TX	3252	9638	QUARTER SIZE HAIL. (FWD)
2012	100	3 NW WYLDWOOD	BASTROP	TX	3016	9750	RELAYED REPORT OF PEA TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL AT OLD HWY 71 AND HWY 71 (EWX)
2049	100	1 E DE KALB	BOWIE	TX	3351	9460	(SHV)
2051	100	1 E WILLS POINT	VAN ZANDT	TX	3270	9598	HAIL COVERING THE GROUND. (FWD)
2103	100	NAPLES	MORRIS	TX	3320	9468	ONE INCH HAIL REPORTED IN NAPLES ALONG HWY 67. (SHV)
2106	100	EMORY	RAINS	TX	3287	9575	(FWD)
2113	125	7 E FOREMAN	LITTLE RIVER	AR	3372	9428	HAIL WAS REPORTED EAST OF FOREMAN ON HWY 32. (SHV)
2117	175	2 NE LIBERAL	BARTON	MO	3758	9449	(SGF)
2135	175	2 E REDWATER	BOWIE	TX	3336	9422	PUBLIC REPORT OF GOLBALL SIZED HAIL JUST EAST OF REDWATER (SHV)
2136	100	8 WSW ATHENS	HENDERSON	TX	3216	9598	(FWD)
2158	100	WETUMPKA	ELMORE	AL	3254	8620	ONE INCH HAIL ALONG STAR RD (BMX)
2210	100	3 E TALLASSEE	TALLAPOOSA	AL	3254	8584	ONE INCH HAIL REPORTED IN THE COMMUNITY OF FRIENDSHIP (BMX)
2215	150	1 SW LINDALE	SMITH	TX	3250	9542	(SHV)
2220	100	PONCA CITY	KAY	OK	3670	9708	PEA TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND. (OUN)
2222	100	5 E NASHVILLE	HEMPSTEAD	AR	3394	9376	QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED BETWEEN NASHVILLE AND MCCASKILL ON HIGHWAY 371. (SHV)
2230	175	DOMINO	CASS	TX	3325	9411	GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF LAKE WRIGHT PATMAN NEAR DOMINO. (SHV)
2240	100	PIKE CITY	PIKE	AR	3412	9358	HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE WAS COVERING THE GROUND (LZK)
2246	275	10 NW FOUKE	MILLER	AR	3336	9401	BASEBALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED SOUTH OF TEXARKANA OR JUST WEST OF FERGUSON ALONG COUNTY ROAD 10. (SHV)
2305	100	ALPINE	CLARK	AR	3422	9338	HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE COVERED THE GROUND (LZK)
2313	175	5 N GILMER	UPSHUR	TX	3280	9495	QUARTER TO GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL IN BETTIE. (SHV)
2315	175	5 W HAWKINS	WOOD	TX	3259	9529	GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED AT HOLLY LAKE NEAR HAWKINS. (SHV)
2325	100	POINT CEDAR	HOT SPRING	AR	3433	9332	(LZK)
2325	100	BENTON	SALINE	AR	3457	9258	HAIL WAS FALLING AT THE OLD SALINE COUNTY AIRPORT JUST OFF INTERSTATE 30. (LZK)
2330	100	3 NE TIFF CITY	MCDONALD	MO	3670	9458	ON HIGHWAY F NEAR HIGHWAY 43 (SGF)
2335	100	4 NE NECHES	ANDERSON	TX	3191	9545	HAMS REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL AT HWY 79 & TRINITY RIVER - EAST OF NECHES. (FWD)
2335	175	6 S HOPE	HEMPSTEAD	AR	3358	9359	(SHV)
2335	175	5 W NEOSHO	NEWTON	MO	3687	9446	(SGF)
2341	175	LONE STAR	MORRIS	TX	3294	9471	(SHV)
2343	100	WHITEHOUSE	SMITH	TX	3223	9522	(SHV)
2348	175	4 S HOT SPRINGS	GARLAND	AR	3444	9305	HAIL OCCURRED AT U.S. HIGHWAY 70 AND HIGDON FERRY ROAD. (LZK)
2348	100	BRYANT	SALINE	AR	3461	9249	HAIL FELL ON INTERSTATE 30 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 121 AND 123. (LZK)
2350	100	WNW UNION	NEWTON	MS	3257	8912	(JAN)
2356	100	2 W NEOSHO	NEWTON	MO	3687	9440	NICKEL TO QUARTER HAIL COVERING GROUND (SGF)
0000	100	SHREVEPORT	CADDO	LA	3247	9380	HAIL REPORTED ON JEFFERSON PAIGE ROAD ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF SHREVEPORT. (SHV)
0000	175	5 SE HOT SPRINGS	GARLAND	AR	3444	9299	PENNY TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL FELL IN THE LAKESIDE SCHOOL AREA. (LZK)
0000	175	DUENWEG	JASPER	MO	3708	9441	(SGF)
0005	125	W BETHSAIDA	NESHOBA	MS	3268	8903	HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN BETHSAIDA ALONG HIGHWAY 19 SOUTH. (JAN)
0005	100	DIAMOND	NEWTON	MO	3700	9432	(SGF)
0011	100	GILMER	UPSHUR	TX	3273	9495	(SHV)
0014	100	PENCIL BLUFF	MONTGOMERY	AR	3463	9373	THERE WAS A LOT OF PEA SIZE HAIL WITH SOME HAILSTONES AS LARGE AS QUARTERS. (LZK)
0017	175	AVINGER	CASS	TX	3290	9455	(SHV)
0018	100	SHREVEPORT	CADDO	LA	3247	9380	HAIL REPORTED AT NORTH MARKET AND HWY. 71 ON THE NORTH SIDE OF SHREVEPORT. (SHV)
0026	175	GLENWOOD	PIKE	AR	3433	9355	(LZK)
Wind Reports (in CSV format)
Time	Speed	Location	County	State	Lat	Lon	Comments
2222	UNK	5 E NASHVILLE	HEMPSTEAD	AR	3394	9376	POWERLINES DOWN BETWEEN NASHVILLE AND MCCASKILL ON HWY 371. (SHV)

CAPE








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