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Posted: (February 08, 2010 08:06 am)
BLOG IN MOTION
Good morning all,
Great blog by Mike Masco this morning from his TV broadcast in NJ. Well get ready for more snow starting tomorrow. This is looking like a double LOW as in two storms one following the other.
Winter Storm Watch Tomorrow in Blue
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JUST THE FACTS,....JUST THE FACTS...
WHAT: 2 PART SNOW STORM
WHERE: DC TO NYC METRO
WHEN: (TUESDAY) AFTER 5PM DC, AFTER 8PM PHILLY, AFTER 11PM NYC
SNOW TUE-WED:
PHILLY 10-16"
DC METRO 12-18"
BALTIMORE 12-18"
NYC METRO 5-9"
NEWARK NJ 6-10"
READING PA 8-14"
ALLENTOWN PA 7-12"
LANCASTER PA 7-12"
POCONO REGION 6-9"
A.C. METRO 10-16" (a little mix possible)
DOVER DE 14-20"
VINELAND NJ 14-20"
BOSTON
HARTFORD CT
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SLEET FACTOR
As one storm leaves and the second part comes in we do have to watch for sleet. Right now it is so marginal on a few of the cities. If that happens you can shave of 2-5" of snow. The temps at 5,500 are warmer this storm vs. the weekend blaster.
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GOING FOR THE RECORD....
We have 56.3" in Philly and if the storm is close tomorrow to my prediction we could break the record above.
Comments On This Blog Article
[Offline]
Not a joke...
Posted: (February 08, 2010 12:36 pm) by: bumblesbounce
Here's the 12z precip map.
http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/weatherblog/11218/12Z-GGEM-NOT-GOOD-NORTH-OF-PHILLY----OUCH
The .75 to 1" of liquid precip equates to only 7.5 to 10" for areas around LI and immediately south. The numbers begin to rise as you head south, but as you can see, Delaware takes the brunt.
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I don't think this is a forecast
Posted: (February 08, 2010 12:34 pm) by: jimpizz
I may be wrong, but I think the numbers Rob posted were off one of the model runs, probably the NAM. I don't think it is his official forecast amounts.
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Joke?
Posted: (February 08, 2010 12:03 pm) by: anthonyweather
7-12" for LV while Philly gets 1.5'+??? All other sources say philly to the LV get 12+
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Mr. PLOW Beats the Blizzard! (again!)
Posted: (February 08, 2010 11:55 am) by: Mr.Plow
Another blizzard in the books. keep them coming Rob!
Mr. Plow has not met a storm this year that he can't beat!
Mr. Plow is going to buy Mrs. Plow some Bling. The snow drought is over big time.........
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Model Consistency
Posted: (February 08, 2010 11:41 am) by: bumblesbounce
Folks, take a look at both the 12z runs (NAM and GFS). They're relatively in-line with each other whereas last night they were not. Does anyone have the 12z Canadian? I'd love to see what it spit out this morning.
[Online]
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Hey Rob
Posted: (February 08, 2010 11:18 am) by: gussbuster21
Your totals seem on the ow side. Something you see that we arent catching?
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You will
Posted: (February 08, 2010 11:13 am) by: Sgt_Snow
Be off on Thursday. The snow won't end until
late Wednesday. The dogging starts Thursday and Friday is iffy.
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Ice Overnight??
Posted: (February 08, 2010 10:51 am) by: jgleavy
What do you think the chance is of it freezing over night on Wednesday and having another day off in Philly area (Lower Bucks) on Thursday??
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Kathy Orr predicted, last night ...
Posted: (February 08, 2010 10:29 am) by: TessNorton
possibly 1-2 feet in Philly, N&W .... what gives?
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12z NAM and GFS
Posted: (February 08, 2010 10:11 am) by: bumblesbounce
12z NAM
DC, Balt. Dover, Vineland: 14 - 22"
LV N. Jersey: 9 - 13"
12z GFS
DC, Balt. Dover, Vineland: 13 - 20"
LV N. Jersey: 6 - 9"
Looks like another bust for areas north of Philly, and another hammering for areas south.
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Projected track?
Posted: (February 08, 2010 09:12 am) by: bumblesbounce
Rob, based on the initial numbers you've tossed out, I'm guessing the storm is going to develop a bit more south than orininally anticipated and take a more ENE track ala this past Saturday's storm.
I see here that central Delaware is in the sweet spot again with between 14 and 20". It seemed to me that the NAM models were predicting this track all weekend, while the GFS and Canadian models showed the storm marching up the coast dumping on NJ and eastern PA.
Is it safe to say that the chances of the GFS and Canadian plays are becoming more and more less likely as we approach this strom?
[Offline]
The Nam/ I don't Like 2 Part Storms/ Variables ????????
Posted: (February 08, 2010 09:11 am) by: 78YANKS
Is coming around with a 2 low synopsis, the 1st one slides East as it moves North, Then another bombs along the jersey Board and wraps it all together then it heads North
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Super Confused
Posted: (February 08, 2010 09:09 am) by: nikki0306
I completely trust your prediction over other meteorologists/stations, but why aren't any other places calling anywhere close to this for Central Delaware? I am a teacher so I guess we are celebrating the 4th of July in School.
[Offline]
Projected track?
Posted: (February 08, 2010 09:08 am) by: bumblesbounce
Rob, based on the initial numbers you've tossed out, I'm guessing the storm is going to develop a bit more south than orininally anticipated and take a more ENE track ala this past Saturday's storm.
I see here that central Delaware is in the sweet spot again with between 14 and 20". It seemed to me that the NAM models were predicting this track all weekend, while the GFS and Canadian models showed the storm marching up the coast dumping on NJ and eastern PA.
Is it safe to say that the chances of the GFS and Canadian plays are becoming more and more less likely as we approach this strom?
[Online]
what a
Posted: (February 08, 2010 09:02 am) by: FSU-WENNER
bust....I am sooo confused allentwon 7-12" I was in 1-2 feet maybe more last night according to local mets and the euro/ggem/and gfs???
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Bringing it a bit south??
Posted: (February 08, 2010 08:58 am) by: GreatNoreaster
Rob, Bit confused as you seem to be putting the target from DC up to Philly again? where is this info coming from as i thought the models had this a Philly to NYC?
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Dogsledding
Posted: (February 08, 2010 08:51 am) by: Vinnie
Here we go again but at least we know for sure what to expect. I'm gonna have to hook up my pooch to a sled to get around here in South Jersey.
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sleet 2
Posted: (February 08, 2010 08:50 am) by: wxmaid
Rob, thank you for at least looking at the mid level warmth and putting SLEET into your blog.
I've been watching this storm as a major sleet event sandwiched with snow since sunday.
Rob, three dimensions
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I have a question Rob..
Posted: (February 08, 2010 08:49 am) by: JDeRose
First off i would to say that this website is great and that you've done a great job with everything..now to my question..I notice that that vineland has 14-20 inches, while places to the north have slightly less..is this storm setting up like the past 2 where south jersey get a big storm? by the way i live in gloucester county, nj so i wouldnt mind if that's the case loo
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NW trend?
Posted: (February 08, 2010 08:43 am) by: Jflyerb1019
Just like the other storms this year is it still possible for a N or NW trend? Thanks for keeping us up to date Rob.
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Southwestern PA?
Posted: (February 08, 2010 08:40 am) by: pittgirl
Would appreciate any info. We're like the black hole on this site.
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Dont forget DE Beaches
Posted: (February 08, 2010 08:39 am) by: Mdaniel91
And all the rain/sleet/snow blizzard winds and my power going out again lol
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wow
Posted: (February 08, 2010 08:39 am) by: dave
this is different, most forecast I heard, were saying this would be more are normal storm around here with more snow the further nw you go, instead of our backwards storms we been having, but seems you are calling for another backwards storm?
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why is NYC
Posted: (February 08, 2010 08:36 am) by: weatherfanjon
the redheaded stepchild on this site? Nobody wants the NYC metro to get any snow at all!
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Great for the big Cities storm wise....BUT ROB!!
Posted: (February 08, 2010 08:33 am) by: oceanwxwatch
YOU FORGOT BOSTON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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sleet!
Posted: (February 08, 2010 08:32 am) by: wxmaid
All well and good until you look at the mid level warm air that will melt falling snow and refreeze it into sleet in the lower layers.
Rob, take a look.
[Online]
I thought this was supposed to be New York City's storm!
Posted: (February 08, 2010 08:31 am) by: sportsphan
Yet, once again, the highest accumulations are in DC and Baltimore. Wenner will go crazy.
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5"-9" in NYC???
Posted: (February 08, 2010 08:28 am) by: vedere
Rob, that seems low considering everything we've been seeing on the models and pretty much been reading everywhere. Why did you take NYC down compared to everyone else?
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Do any of you whiners
Posted: (February 08, 2010 08:27 am) by: Snotzalot
care to remember our snow starved Poconos?
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No one will have 4' of snow on the ground
Posted: (February 08, 2010 08:26 am) by: vedere
Go out and measure how much snow is left from Saturday's storm. Likely closer to one foot than two feet at this time. Two reasons: compacting and evaporation.
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yeah
Posted: (February 08, 2010 08:25 am) by: teacher5
What's the quote, "I'm lovin it!" However, I teach and I might be in school until July.
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question
Posted: (February 08, 2010 08:25 am) by: dave
hey rob how will this be in the upper mont county area vs the last several events where we got less?
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2'
Posted: (February 08, 2010 08:22 am) by: Graserjr
on ch.6 last night they said Philly metro could get up to 2' in this next storm..that would give us 4' of snow on the ground..
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Lovin' it!
Posted: (February 08, 2010 08:19 am) by: Renec1w
What do you think, Rob? 12 inches? Less than the weekend? You get it right every time.
Enough
Posted: (February 08, 2010 08:18 am) by: CrashDavis
I'm filing a restraining order against Mother Nature and Old Man Winter. Enough already.
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[Online]
Bring it on!
Posted: (February 08, 2010 08:08 am) by: WET.WHISTLE
What's another foot of snow when you have two feet already?!
