May is about a degree warmer than normal. Normal rainfall is 3.67" for the month. So far O'Hare has 3.69" (as of the 25th). Midway airport is actually below normal 3.62" when the monthly norm is 4.12". I think we will have a warm muggy summer, but nowhere near as hot as last year.

Step away from the ledge John. Finally the climate modelers are catching up with the slow-down or pause in global warming over the last decade. Where the best estimate for the IPCC was 3.3 degrees C with a range of 2.0 to 4.5C, Otto et al have revised the best estimate to 2C, with a range of 1.2C – 3.9C http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1836.html We don't know as much as we think we do when it comes to the earth's climate control mechanisms. Btw A very chilly Spring in Chicagoland with March and April well below normal, though May is near normal. Also second wettest on record, so no drought this year. All this rain will definitely be influencing summer temperatures here.

Rob you are the man and I always enjoy your work. Im on this Web site all the time. You know me by now. I really just want a cool summer cause my job doesnt have AC and they r cheap lol. Besides we deserve a cooler summer

George, with all due respect, your May forecast was a complete bust thus far and likely will be for the whole month if my forecast busts, (unlikely bur possible).

Hello again Rob, you said, "I'm predicting two 90 degree days in April" this was a great call, what's more we again were in agreement. Check this post of mine out from a long time ago: "Hey Wenner, we both did well in our long term warmth forecast, "pattern change." ~ One month ago you had forecast the change within the first week of April, later amending it at the end of March to 4/8-4/10 if my memory of your comment regarding that serves. I had forecasted a pattern change to significantly above normal temperatures, also ~ one month ago to be between the 10th and 17th, without amending it. I'd say being one day off isn't bad on my part and I'd say that your outlook was excellent all the way around, no "nailing it" comments to come, hahaha.

Beverly, above normal precipitation/thunderstorms, (southern jet enhancement, dry lines, additional lift...). However, the nino that I and Rob for that matter are forecasting will be weak and too late for the height of severe weather season, we'll see.

It only reached 55 today here in Lynchburg, VA. I have to grab a jacket to go outisde and yes, the heat is running in my house. That doesent look to be changing as it will do nothing but rain all next week. Is this gonna be one of those summers where it does nothing but rain and your vacation gets ruined by cool overcast days? This needs to end, ASAP

For the upcoming winter a weak nino would be preferable, I could easily live with neutral, anything but a nina. It looks to me from way, way out that a nino is more likely.