Well We are looking at the latest data this morning and a few things have changed in the potental for severe weather . First off The one piece of energy has moved quicker then expected and a secondary piece now located south of az may not get in the plains for the main potental time for the moisture to occur and above that the surface energy which would have set the tornadic potental going is accelerating ne quickly and will be in the great lakes by evening , which has taken alot of the shear that would go with the jetstreak away so potental for tornadoes have dropped . Hail and damaging winds will now be the main threat to the midwest states this afternoon . All tho the large scale tornado threat has diminished , isolated tornadoes and gustnados may occur in the texas ok arkansas area this afternoon
DEWPOINTS WHERE ARE THEY AT THIS HR ... ABOVE 60 is RIPE FOR STORM INITIATION
so areas like austin dallas and ft worth are in the mid 60s dewpoint with SE wind meaning the llj is pumping moisture in
A SSE WIND OR SE WIND SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL JET . WHERE THAT BUMPS UP AGAINST A WESTERN WIND COMPONENT IS THE BEST LOCATION FOR SEVERE WEATHER
Beyond today the severe weather calms down . stay with liveweatherblogs.com for latest weather info
Okay Dean.... good to see ya there first off!!!
Wowy.... What kind of a BLOCK is this???? Wow flow is coming down the East coast from the far reaches of the North Atlantic... and the flow going from the Northeastern Gulf to Minneapolis wow!!!
The temperature annomolies are amazing too at one point this evening Buffalo is 77 and Kansas City is 36 that's incredible!!!
Hey Mike, what are your thoughts on the possibility of this cold pool of air, caused by a line of thunderstorms, dense/heavy as it is, taking the paths of least resistance, (valleys/flattest of land), blown eastward by the outflow boundary along with the ofb causing eastward progression of air contributing to the formation of a lee side Appalachian trough. I mention this because less heating generally causes the pressure falls to be further east of the mountains. Furthermore, the flow is favorable for such a situation, along with the fact that there will also be downsloping and heating of air on the lee side. This will likely cause a situation where the cold pool of air that you've mentioned lifts the downsloped heated air. Divergence generally increases east of the mountains with these lee side troughs (vorticity as well) and as you know, that increases lift. Surface heating on the lee side is not awful but not great and in the past we've seen a deeper trough on the lee side plain, these lee side App troughs are bigger players during a weaker synoptic flow. All of this being said, if no line of storms form, or a ton of other things that could go wrong do, then nothing will happen, the bust potential is high, but it will be interesting to watch either way.
And as always, I believe that I can speak for all of us when I say that all of our thoughts and prayers are with those that passed away and that were injured within this outbreak, along with their families.