Nice blog FSU. I agree with your call, it seems likely this summer will not be as brutal as past summers. I'm a big believer in persistence, so if we've struggled to get the heat in this Spring (which has not been a problem in other years), I tend to think that absent a few heat waves we will be cooler on average than past years. We'll see. It's all a crap shoot anywho.
Hey Rob, OLR anomalies are definitely a help in ENSO forecasts. I found it rather interesting that most of the modeling predicting SST anomalies in Nino region 3.4 above zero were dynamical models, while most all of the ones predicting negative anomalies were statistical models. I believe that though this is a long, long way out, that this will bust. My reasoning for saying that is, first, the "Spring Barrier," where much higher amounts of rising air due to the onset of the warm season cause computer guidance to fall in overall verification/become less reliable, which is why this only happens in the Northern Hemisphere since there is so much more land and therefor additional lift which lowers model verification scores as opposed to the ocean laden Southern Hemisphere. Also, I think that the dynamical models are more accurate for this type of outlook and in many cases in general, (ECMWF vs. CSU CLIPR?). Furthermore, I think that the warmer anomalies that progressed eastward are the beginning of change. The MJO will help dictate things through Kelvin waves propagating eastward and warming the region as well as both oceanic and atmospheric Rossby waves, which as you clearly must know can increase sst's, also move east and the atmospheric Rossbys can help to create a synoptic environment that intensifies the effects of a developing ENSO anomaly. I could go on and on, but all this being said, and I have been saying for a very long time, I expect an El Nino to form, toward the end of the year, I do not think it will be a strong Nino at this time but an El nino between +.7 and 1.5/1.7 is my guess from ~6-8 months out, hahaha.
I forgot to mention this;
I believe that though climatology implies that the mid-west will be hit, I believe that they will see a severe season (no pun intended). Abnormal amounts of severe thunderstorm and tornadoes are likely along with many powerful (over ef 3), tornadoes.
10 days ago"
Are you kidding?? I would follow King Reb wherever he goes to spread his vast knowledge of weather!! I would be the charter member of the King Reb fan club, but I guess I would have to get in line behind Brian the tea drinker.