Severe Weather

SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION outlooks & short term
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Severe Weather

October 1st MAP

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******The Dot is where we have the greatest confidence for strong/severe weather. This is for entertainment and forecasting study purposes. For an official outlook visit www.spc.noaa.gov.*****

The "Dot" is over:

Mike DeFino's Pick: Rome, GA

Rob Guarino's Pick:

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WINTER OUTLOOK 2012-2013 IS IN ! CLICK TO SEE YOUR TOWN

Southeast

Main Threats: Damaging Winds/Isolated Tornadoes/Small Hail below severe limits/Flash Flooding

Surface low in the Deep South will continue to slowly push eastward bringin a warm front northward. The wedge front will set up along the mountains as weak ridging to the north leads to some cold air damming. This set up will allow increased sfc vorticity/enhanced shear for storms to rotate and produce isolated tornadoes. We illustrate below:

Strong low level winds combined with the backing winds associated with the sfc low/wedge front will contribute to a high shear environment in the lower levels. This will also coincide with veyr low cloud bases with projected lifted condensation levels ranging from 500-750m AGL. Despite marginal CAPE isolated tornadoes are favorable in this set up. Forcing is not that strong and will support broken line segments and semi-discrete supercells capable of acquiring rotation.

SNEAK PEAK AT FOLLOWING DAY...CHECK BACK DAILY AS THIS BLOG UPDATES DAILY AT 12:15AM EDT

....THIS PRODUCT WILL CONTINUE ON A DAILY BASIS WHEN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED....

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Blog started by Mike DeFino , on 234 days ago

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Michael Lanspa

Good call, guys. Looks like the line nailed both Reading and moving on to Poughkeepsie. And it did slide further north of us here in MD. Do you guys like wear robes and pointy wizard hats? :)

243 days ago

rob guarino

Yes. I think the energy is further north Mike has his a bit more south but both areas are in the possible isolated severe zone

243 days ago

Michael Lanspa

OK, so when I see the differing dots, does that mean both places are in the bull's eye, as in a long line of storms?

243 days ago

rob guarino

Yeah Michael that's why I had Poughkeepsie NY on my pick vs Mike's Reading PA.

243 days ago

Michael Lanspa

Local news here as of this morning has the worst of it sliding in north of MD into PA & NY.

243 days ago

Michael Lanspa

The Red "Isolated/Scattered" section came further into Md in the last several hours. I was hoping this kind of stormy stuff would end in Sept and that we'd start getting frosty. Maybe in October...

243 days ago

Brent

I'm the dot for tomorrow wonderful.

244 days ago

Mike DeFino

Michael0 Yeah we put out a blog yesterday on it!

http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=7685&Itemid=179

Still looks like a line of storms could move through with winds.

244 days ago

Michael Lanspa

Rob/Mike - what's cookin' for tomorrow (Saturday, Sept. 22) here in Maryland? Looks like yet another swooping cold front.

244 days ago

Michael Lanspa

I like all the scientific data, and very much appreciate the "plain English" explanations when asked for. Great work...

246 days ago

rob guarino

Thanks Michael. Main thing for us is to keep people informed. The storms this year have caused to many people to be out in open and struck by lightning.

Two little boys died earlier this summer when a tree fell on them and as a dad of two kids that really hit home. Glad we keep ya informed.

246 days ago

Michael Lanspa

Mike & Rob - you guys nailed this one on the head. We had the winds and heavy downpours. MD was under a tornado watch for most of the day. Big line of storms blew through about 3:30, just like you said. Nice job!!!

246 days ago

rob guarino

It's close Dominick. Lets see how the afternoon plays out

247 days ago

Dominick Mogstad

I live in southern central MA... today we will get wind and rain, but no severe weather? If its in NY, we should at least get mentioned.

247 days ago

Mike DeFino

Michael...looks like strong winds are possible in a line of storms that will pass by in the afternoon hours. I have you on the southern fringe of an isolated tornado threat. This is low, but be on the look out.

247 days ago

Michael Lanspa

What do you see for Columbia, MD, just SW of Baltimore, tomorrow?

248 days ago

Dominick Mogstad

Hey mike, there are a lot of watches up, but none extending into central massachusetts. Do you think that will happen? There is a big risk for us, but no watches?

257 days ago

Mike DeFino

lol no your good Dominick. I had to update it, last night I talked about the potential today I am going with it.

258 days ago

Dominick Mogstad

nevermind.... i'm a jerk

258 days ago

Dominick Mogstad

you need to update your "day two" map. NOAA is calling for a MDT risk for all of the northeast... with a very high risk for strong winds and tornadoes.

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