Main Threats: Damaging Winds/Isolated Tornadoes/Small Hail below severe limits/Flash Flooding
Surface low in the Deep South will continue to slowly push eastward bringin a warm front northward. The wedge front will set up along the mountains as weak ridging to the north leads to some cold air damming. This set up will allow increased sfc vorticity/enhanced shear for storms to rotate and produce isolated tornadoes. We illustrate below:
Strong low level winds combined with the backing winds associated with the sfc low/wedge front will contribute to a high shear environment in the lower levels. This will also coincide with veyr low cloud bases with projected lifted condensation levels ranging from 500-750m AGL. Despite marginal CAPE isolated tornadoes are favorable in this set up. Forcing is not that strong and will support broken line segments and semi-discrete supercells capable of acquiring rotation.
SNEAK PEAK AT FOLLOWING DAY...CHECK BACK DAILY AS THIS BLOG UPDATES DAILY AT 12:15AM EDT
....THIS PRODUCT WILL CONTINUE ON A DAILY BASIS WHEN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED....
Mike & Rob - you guys nailed this one on the head. We had the winds and heavy downpours. MD was under a tornado watch for most of the day. Big line of storms blew through about 3:30, just like you said. Nice job!!!
Michael...looks like strong winds are possible in a line of storms that will pass by in the afternoon hours. I have you on the southern fringe of an isolated tornado threat. This is low, but be on the look out.