The NHC has named Tropical Depression 6 tonight and we also have an invest off Florida and ERNESTO!!!
Lets start with Ernesto, I must say I am very impressed with how this storm continues to battle all the negatives ahead of it and still survive and recently become very impressive on recent SAT imagery. We could see in the latest frames the shear has let up significantly. One way to tell is:
About 10kts of westerly shear is over the system right now down from the 20Kts earlier. If you jump over to our hurricane hideout page you can catch the latest imagery of Ernesto. In those images you will see improvement of the outflow on the western quadrants telling us the shear has weakened enough for Ernesto to make a run at some intensity. Notice a little further upstream we see strong shear again, although some disagreement exist on if this will weaken. But general consensus is for this area to become more favorable as Ernesto moves into it.
Throughout the day the lower level convergence and convection round the circulation has improved and I would not be surprised to see the winds get bumped up slightly in the morning updates. But just as good as Ernesto looks right now it could quickly reverse but right now this is going to have a window to intensify slightly.
TD 6 is expected to become our next named system although it should be fairly short lived. Right now NE shear is making things difficult and it is still attached to the ITCZ. Latest analysis shows this has hindered the consolidation of the vorticity in the lower levels, but given the strong low level convergence focused over the system it should improve tomorrow.
Latest IR imagery is still impressive with a lot of convection. It has calmed down some over Cuba after the diurnal max. Upper level winds still remain unfavorable for the time being for any development but that could change in a day or so. The invest has made some improvement today but the lack of any low level convergence focused in this area and the lower level vorticity becoming slightly more elongated suggest we still have some time before watching this develop.
The latest RECON into Ernesto shows no change in intensity - and though SAT imagery shows a more symetrical characteristic - the Hurricane Hunters have not found a central core (eye wall) of any kind this AM. Diurnal variation is pulsing T-Storms but shear remains an issue for now.
NOT surprisingly, TD6 has become T.S. Florence to the SW of the Cape Verdes, with a very well efined low to mid level circulation - and moderate Northeasterly wind shear. Specialized Hurricane models have a number of solutions (not unusual for 'new' storm situations) - with some models intensifying it - and others weakening it. The global models do not have much of a handle on it yet - but if the storm can stay on a due west track (vs WNW) - the system will find warmer SST's and not as much shear in a couple of days.