Tropical Wave near the Lesser Antilles looks impressive on Vis/Ir Imagery, but this tropical wave should run into a few problems shortly preventing any chance of development. Some dry air entrainment and increasing westerly vertical shear will take its toll on this tropical wave. The other tropical wave should slowly push west with no development expected. Models do hint at another PAC system developing along monsoon trough.
NHC on Invest 99L
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. A TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...IS PRODUCING
AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
GFS and ensemble members keep this on a west heading with very strong agreement. As we approach the long range that is when we see guidance diverge.Right now the southerly tracks appear to make the most sense especially with the GFS being aggressive with turning this into a named system.