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Tropical Update: Invest 99L

Screen shot 2012-07-30 at 10.58.18 AM

Tropical Wave near the Lesser Antilles looks impressive on Vis/Ir Imagery, but this tropical wave should run into a few problems shortly preventing any chance of development.  Some dry air entrainment and increasing westerly vertical shear will take its toll on this tropical wave. The other tropical wave should slowly push west with no development expected.  Models do hint at another PAC system developing along monsoon trough.

 

 

 

Screen shot 2012-07-30 at 10.34.24 AM

NHC on Invest 99L


FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...IS PRODUCING
AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


GFS and ensemble members keep this on a west heading with very strong agreement.  As we approach the long range that is when we see guidance diverge.Right now the southerly tracks appear to make the most sense especially with the GFS being aggressive with turning this into a named system. 

 

Blog started by Mike DeFino , on 323 days ago
You need to be a member of this group before you can participate in this discussion
Kevin Reilly
Sure Rob live from Disney World.... I am driving down leaving Saturday at 7:00 driving through the night so I have Philly to Orlando Covered.

Guess I have will have to sneak my netbook
323 days ago
 
rob guarino
ahhh Kev if something pops you'll be our web reporter right
323 days ago
 
Kevin Reilly
On another note Invest 99L stands the best chance of development
324 days ago
 
Kevin Reilly
I will be in Florida from August 5th to August 13th so we shall see what happens.

Now July 2009 just a tropical tibit there were no named storms we all know what happened in the Winter of 2009-2010.
324 days ago
 
rob guarino
Mike it will be interesting to see if the weak el nino brings a slow or well slow re-start to the tropical season.
324 days ago
 


 

weatherrush


masterthemets
Tuccson Computer Consulting
Tuccson Computer Consulting

 

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