Northeast

The threat for severe weather will take place in the morning hours. Current indications show enough instability will be present early in the morning to present a severe threat for damaging winds and hail up to 1" in diameter.  

Mid level pressure falls/associated mid level cooling will steepen mid level lapse rates allowing for SBCAPE values to exceed 2500J/Kg.  The main threat will take place early in the morning with a few isolated cells developing later. 

Middle Atlantic

Southern NJ/MD/DE on south will see a severe threat later in the day (for those that miss out on the early morning convection.  The early morning convection will be confined to the north with the front.  

The front will slow its progression across this area allowing for more heating during the day leading to sufficient instability for a wind/hail threat.  Initiation will occur along the front with some enhancement along the leading edge of a 700mb speed max increasing convergence.  

This area will also be in closer proximity to the LFQ of the upper level jet streak and stronger deep layer shear.  Uni-directional shear will lead to line segments capable of damaging winds with possible bowing segments and large hail.  

NORTH CAROLINA

Uni-directional shear oriented parallel to the front will allow for storms to develop in a line that will progress south.  Possible training will increase the flood threat.  This area will experience a surge in activity later in the day as the southerly winds being aided by TS Debby run into the front increasing frontogenesis.  The strong convergence will lead to the threat for damaging winds and hail.  

FLORIDA

Combination of strong low level shear and sufficient destabilization in the late morning and afternoon hours will lead to the threat for tornadic activity.  Threat will drop off after sunset.