The MUCAPE values above are not that impressive for the heat we are seeing. One would expect much higher values, but the problem is aloft. Forecast soundings show an absolute stable layer between 500-600mb which will decrease lapse rates as we head into the afternoon and evening hours. We are watching two main areas for convective initiation. First is with a pre frontal trough that will be more active to the south across the Carolinas/VA. Main reason is an upper level trough pushing into the area allowing for enough lift to provide more development with the higher instability. The second area is to the north with the cold front being the main area of convection. Todays convection will offer some clues to the severity/coverage of the threat for tomorrow. We will update on that late tomorrow.
I will second that. A classic day where large hail and damaging winds will be a good bet. Also, quite bit of lightning and heavy rainfall from these storms. Looks like the timetable for this will between 4 and 10pm..