It stops the northwest trend! But the model errors are having a significant impact on this outcome. The difference from this run to previous runs of the NAM is the interaction with the northern stream. There is no interaction this run as a result the northern fringe of the precip shield gets sheared apart. Now to the errors:
The model is missing the much more impressive band of precip altogether here! This has a big impact on the heat distribution aloft. The model is knocking down the SE ridge way too much compared to actual observations. This will allow the northern trend to continue by pumping up heights along the East Coast more allowing more interaction with the northern stream.
The SREF is made up of 3 different versions of the WRF including many of the NAM (WRF NMM) members in the image below diagreeing with the 18z GFS. This is total qpf:
Northwest trend on precip shield continues on GFS with 1-2" making it into Philly-NYC.
Also is north and west from previous runs 5mm is approximately 0.20" qpf:
Once again Philly gets screwed. The north west trend should have been in our favor for once and just this one damn time it doesn't happen. This is just insane. We just can't get any snow in Philly. Ohwell maybe ill end up with an inch still and the nam is wrong.
This is just crazy. It literally hasn't snowed since I moved 2 years ago.
Well I called this storm would go back south, and people were telling me it could only keep coming north, looks like I was right in the end, and never got my hopes up. Thank you lol, the PV isn't going to allow any precip to come up to us.
The next couple weeks will be suppressed . then we will have like 2-3 weeks of good winter left. RIP WINTER of 12-13.