18z NAM

It stops the northwest trend! But the model errors are having a significant impact on this outcome.  The difference from this run to previous runs of the NAM is the interaction with the northern stream.  There is no interaction this run as a result the northern fringe of the precip shield gets sheared apart. Now to the errors:

The model is missing the much more impressive band of precip altogether here!  This has a big impact on the heat distribution aloft.  The model is knocking down the SE ridge way too much compared to actual observations.  This will allow the northern trend to continue by pumping up heights along the East Coast more allowing more interaction with the northern stream.

15z SREF

The SREF is made up of 3 different versions of the WRF including many of the NAM (WRF NMM) members in the image below diagreeing with the 18z GFS.  This is total qpf:

18z GFS

Northwest trend on precip shield continues on GFS with 1-2" making it into Philly-NYC. 

18z RGEM

Also is north and west from previous runs 5mm is approximately 0.20" qpf: