Let me first say, as has been discussed by Rob and many of his great forecasters and Dave Toleris at WXRisk.com, about a more favorable pattern coming up in the next two weeks. If you didn't get a chance, check out the GFS and GFS ensembles from last night's run. Unfortunately, I can't post images at the moment, but wanted to post something really quick here.
So, after a few actually big weather systems, especially later this week, the trough over the Eastern US will be established. Finally, we start to turn colder. That is very important, get the arctic air in place and then we're set. Now, we do have some blocking over Eastern Canada. The AO and NAO at least are going to stay in the negative territory. The PNA may finally get into the positive territory, but slightly. Of course these teleconnections can change, but at least thats where they are at. So, the upper air pattern and if you look at the Euro and the GFS upper air maps, you can actually see this. Where we get some ridging over the US and all these storm systems that will cut west of us we'll eventually pave the way for a trough in the East. So as we approach Christmas week, the trough will be in place. Then, the idea of a disturbance dropping into this trough would give way to a big winter storm. So, what appears to be the timetable and we know the models will keep showing different solutions may be right after Christmas. So, if we know the pattern is changing to something more favorable, then the models will eventually show it. You can really see how the models catch on when the upcoming pattern becomes very favorable. I can remember Dave (i.e, saying in his recent videos), its not that the models are to blame, but if the pattern did become favorable, then the models will eventually show it. Thats a huge point in and key in doing weather forecasting.
So, what we have finally, if the GFS shows a very large storm taking shape near Texas, say right after Christmas. If you start looking at 240 hours onward, you can see how this all takes shape. Also, the amount of QPF the model shows and even on the ensembles, looks very impressive. At this point, don't even waist any energy on the rain snow line. The idea is that this storm would track over the Deep South and may cut a path just offshore near the Middle Atlantic Coast. This may be a significant winter storm threat. I would even for this period say there is a low risk for wintry weather in this time period.
So, no doubt, we'll all be eagerly awaiting to see what will happen. Again, sorry for no images in this blog, but wanted to get my thoughts out here fast. I'm pretty sure Rob and Mike will post some model images in the coming days.
Yeh, I'm getting excited too. Not sure about New Years... But would not be surprised if something happens in that time period. Definitely read of a lot of weather discussions over at American WX where the mood was down, since there were signals in the weather pattern not so great, but I thiink we'll finally get a time period where yes, finally some snow to talk about.
Awesome post John! That would be awesome if we got a snow storm shortly after xmas in time for the new years. I also heard a possible storm that could be brewing for shortly after new years. Heard anything on that?