Well, as I sit here fighting the flu and having Firefox not cooperating in letting me paste a simple images of the Euro versus the GFS, I'll try Chrome. Actually, it did help. So, now onto my blog and my thoughts this early Sunday morning...
Its bad enough and yeh, I'm a Philly fan of the Phillies, Flyers, Eagles and Sixers. Let's see, well no hockey, that sucks. Phillies had a rough season with so many injuries. One to forget. Sixers, well, if only our big man would be able to play. I won't even try to explain that one. Then the Eagles. You know, when the Eagles season first started, there was promise and hope. Little did I know, that the season would implode by 5th game of the season. Sometimes you can relate sport seasons to the weather. Remember when you heard, hey your team has all this great talent. Kind of like the winter season forecasts. But as the season unfolded for the Eagles, things go worse and the way things happen, you couldn't have made this up. I'm hoping this winter season for snow lovers out there will not turn into that kind of nightmare. I keep thinking back to the winiter of 2009-2010. I remember that great blizzard. Talk about the perfect time to get the snow.. The days were nice and short, so that helped immensely with the snow being powdery. But here we are. We did get off to a great start back in early November. Remember that Nor'easter. Now, I've read great discussions by Rob and his team of forecasters. But the frustrating part is that the cold and snowy pattern looks to be delayed. Anyway, let's see whats going on. No doubt, there will be updates on the weather pattern shortly..
So, what is going on with the weather and why the snow and cold is getting pushed back for us folks back here in the East. Well, check out the new Euro versus the GFS 0z run. I think the other night the models made a major shift the other night. Well, late tonight or early this Sunday morning, yikes..This image will auto update, so hopefully, you'll be checking this blog out today versus tonight. Click on the image for larger view.
What these upper images show by the Euro and GFS would favor the brunt of the cold heading into the Western US. Probably big snows from Alaska down into Western Canada and Western US. Check out the purple showing up over Alaska. That to me looks like the Polar Vortex. Worst possible possition if you want snow here in the East. I remember Dave Toleris discussing that last year and even in his latest videos on his website. I'm pretty sure its been discussed by Rob and Mike . This has the look of last year. Well, for the moment, I will say that would be temporary. Let's hope. But the difference with this year's pattern is that we have the NAO and AO negative. Thats good. What you do see, which I think is good is that and hopefully, I have this right, a more western negative NAO. Why, notice all the shades of orange up and over Greenland. The Euro shows it more than the GFS. I'll give credit to Dave on that one. Thats after reading so many great discussions, that you begin to understand these key features and especially how to look for a pattern favoring a cold and snowy one.
So, the one thing thats hurting us is the PNA. The PNA is forecasted to barely reach neutral, so its one of the reasons why the models are heading in this direction. I'll paste in the current plot of the PNA. If you click on it, then you see the ensembles.
So, once you see the ensembles, notice how the models struggle to bring it to neutral. , but at least its bettern than the current plot. If the PNA can somehow get into the positive phase, then we are certainly in better shape.
But, let's make sure the AO and NAO, keep in the negative phase. Its certainly a big time balancing act to get that cold and snowy one.
All this means is that yep, it maybe cooler, but probably winter weather chances will be on the low side at least till the 20th. The one thing we need to have is that Polar vortex is parked over central and Southern Canada and a building ridge over the Western US to finally get us into a more favorable pattern.
Now, one thing that caught my eye on the overnight model runs was the Euro. Granted its 10 days out, but if you took it verbatum, we would have record warmth and severe weather for Middle Atlantic and Southeast US. Crazy huh... I know Dean will probably talk more on that as we get closer. Still, with the models things can change. Thats one thing we all have to do is sti back and say, why are the models heading in this direction.
Click on the image below to see the 240 panel. Notice where it wraps the low up..This would be Tuesday evening, December 18th...
So to sum up this blog, as I fight this flu, unfortunately, for a snow lover out there, especially in the East and ones that want a White Christmas, well, we'll probably have to wait a bit more. Hopefully, as we get near the end of December things will finally move into a more favorable pattern.
Definitely let me know your thoughts. I'm surprised I'm able to write anything.. Hopefullly, some of what I wrote up helped. Still, severe weather on the 19th and record warmth??
Just saw the new 12z Euro run. A very strong storm developing over the over Arkansas on the 18th and then heads into Western PA on the 19th. Now that low and from what I see on the 500mb map, is like a wall of blocking up to the north. So, this low can only so far up to the north. So, looks like we have a big storm, probably a wet and mild one that week. Still thats 10 days a way and like you said Rob, lots can change..