CMC- Little bit more rain inland Northern Middle Atlantic with out to sea track and minor impact on coast. (east trend)
UKMET- Out to sea-Minor impacts on coast (east trend)
EUROPEAN- Out to sea- Minor impacts on coast (east trend)
The GFS is in and shows two things that counteract each other. A quicker trough split results in rain getting in closer to the coast, but the progressive pattern kicks the trough out to sea. Below is the image of the rain moving in:
The active pattern leads to the low getting kick out to sea before turning northward up the coast. With little time to develop the low does not strengthen until it is well offshore keeping the coastal problems to a minimum on this run. However, with a weak a low combined with the high pressure to the north the tight pressure gradient will bring in a long easterly fetch of winds which will cause some minor problems.
GFS ENSEMBLES agree with the OP
Ensembles are the same model that is run several times with slightly different initial conditions and different parameters/convective schemes/formulas to see how big the spread is....if there is a lot of disagreement then it leads to a low confidence forecast. If agreement is strong forecast has higher confidence.
The CMC continues to show a quicker trough split resulting in a favorable upper air pattern for precipitation to expand into the Northern Middle Atlantic despite a further east track of the low. The progresive pattern kicks it out to sea.
Models are becoming more progressive and not given the trough the time to develop low closer to the coast. It makes sense because the east pacific oscillation is positive and will keep throwing energy eastward quicker. It is also preventing the cold air from entering the solutions!
Continues the theme of the 12z suite with an out to sea track.
East shift continues. The model is becoming more progressive and kicks the energy east offshore. Minor coastal problems but the trend continues to be east and quicker. This reduces the easterly fetch towards the coast. Thus, reducing overall impact on shore points.