Good morning everyone!

Erin will be doing the updates today and will as usual provide excellent analysis later this morning.

However, I want to touch on the potential for freezing rain tomorrow morning.  All models are pretty much portraying a steady period of warm air transport from this morning through tomorrow morning with temperatures steadily rising even through the morning hours tomorrow.  My concern here is that models don’t always handle boundary dynamics very well, in other words, all that snow on the ground.  That factor could mean the difference between 33 and rain and 31 with freezing rain for many locations, not just the interior.

The good news that almost all the precipitation will hold off until mid to late morning tomorrow, which will give most locations a chance to warm up.  Of course, with the warm air invading, you also have to be concerned about the potential for locally dense fog tonight through tomorrow morning and possibly into the afternoon hours.  Tomorrow morning’s rush hour is not going to be the greatest.

Overall, I expect a period of freezing rain to move into the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas tomorrow with the greatest threat for icing over northeastern Pennsylvania, central and northern New Jersey, much of southeastern New York, and especially Connecticut.  Any location with six inches or more of snow is going to have to deal with at least 0.05″ of freezing rain before going over to rain.  I would not rule out up to 0.25″ of ice potential for the northern interior, especially in Connecticut.  Be prepared for icy conditions tomorrow morning before all locations warm up above freezing by the afternoon.

By the way, a word about the “storm” for Thursday.  In short, don’t buy into the GFS.  I don’t like how the model is over phasing here and the pattern thus far is not lining up correctly for the GFS solution to verify.  I like the idea of a suppressed storm to the south here with little to no impact on the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas. Of course, I’ll keep an eye on this threat just in case.