This afternoon an area of low pressure is organizing over the Gulf of Mexico that will lift northeast towards the New Jersey coastal waters by tomorrow morning. As you can see with the radar image above, moisture is already lifting north of the cold front with rain just to off the New Jersey coast.
While temperatures at the lower levels are marginally cold enough for snow with 925 MB temperatures below freezing for much of the coastal plain, the mid levels are actually rather warm along the coast. This atmospheric signature strongly points to rain, potentially mixing with sleet or snow along the coast at times. Little if not any accumulation is expected at this time.
The overall set up for the interior has not changed with snowfall totals of around 2 to 4 inches expected. The snow will be wet in nature and mixed with sleet at times. Look for the snow to pick up after 7 PM and intensify through the overnight hours. Overall, based on current observations, I see no reason to change the going forecast for a colder nor lower solution.
I'm very concerned about the clipper diving through on Sunday night. A strong disturbance plus a powerful thermal gradient with moisture being thrown into an Arctic air mass can lead to one heck of a surprise along the coast.
Steve if you had to guess on are next chance for a snow storm, what would it be? Would it be after the 2nd cold front passes say around the 22nd? I'm not going to hold you to this guess. Thanks. Charlie