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The Four Regions above match the Four Areas on the Blue/Orange Graph
The Blue/Orange graphshows temps rising in all regions of the Pacific which confirms that El Nino has started and will migrate eastward in the next few months. Now that is the El Nino is confirmed...which one will show up this winter ? Weak, Moderate or Strong ?
The NAO or North Atlantic Oscillation is simply a "blocking" pattern that allows for cold air to slow down and allows LOW pressure to form off the coast and has time to explode into snowstorms.
It's basically the traffic cop of weather. Slow the pattern down and the odds of a juiced up system getting into NJ-NY-PA. starts to increase. Negative NAO = More storm chances for South Jersey.
The NAO here in December is going to get better toward the later part of the month so expect a better chance of snow after December 17th for South Jersey.
The positive phase shows warmer water building up in the Gulf of Alaska and along the Western US. This would favor a +PNA pattern with ridging along the Western US and a trough downstream into the Eastern US. A negative phase would favor the opposite with a western US trough.
WHAT IS OUR TAKE ON THE WINTER AHEAD AT THIS POINT.....
Put the NAO and AO in sync and a nice dose of El Nino moisture and you lean toward an above average winter in South Jersey. We'll have our best chance of snow from December 22 to January 31 this year as the NAO and AO get together in January.
IF YOU PLOW SNOW OR NEED SNOW REMOVAL/SALTING UPDATES THIS THE LAST CHANCE TO GET IN ON OUR TEXT/CELL PHONE UPDATE SERVICE.