The models have finally started to nail down a solution for Sat night-Sunday. Yes, there is a north trend but how far north can it really get?
Chances of Accumulating Snow
Hour 48 RGEM
It's going to be very tough to get any further north than NE philly. Light snow will try to infiltrate as far north as the lehigh valley, but don't expect much accumulation up that way. A north trend can only go so far, and looking at 500mb it shouldnt go much further north than what you are seeing on the NAM/RGEM. We are within 48 hours now so major changes will stop taking place today. Look for minor model adjustments tonight and tomorrow morning.
Rick it's only weather and Rebel just gives his best idea on what's going to happen. Just because his way of doing it is not the same as the more in depth ones does not mean he should be bashed.
Also why are you posting the other blogs of people that said someone in our area will get 1-2 feet this weekend. Also all the PDII comments. None of that is going to happen yet you like to single out Rebel. I'm pretty sure you are like most of us and love snow. However we can't just like the people that find the scenarios we need for a big storm.
I'm sure if you add up all of his calls vs others on here he's not doing that bad. Who else is going to make a 5am update for us early birds. I"m in bed at 830 so the oZ model talk doesn't do for me.
Also Rebel, if Philly does get an inch don't close the account, although I highly doubt you have anything to worry about.
Which call is it gonna be, rebel? remember these 'calls?'
Discussion started by Rebelg , on Monday, 30 January 2012 10:51 am Zippie do da zippie de day.We have two storms one colud be rain changing to snow and one could be snow changing to rain..I an going to chill for a few days and sit back till Wednesday morning.First call just based on history and 40 years of watching storms.Snow changing to heavy rain in the city for the weekend storm.Talk soon I hope we get snow ,but its not looking good.
Rebelg, Its starting to look better ,but this one is starting to look like a north and west storm.Lancaster reading Allentown ect .Poconos and elk should do well.Hartford CT east gets burried.
The RGEM also looks like its gonna pop the secondary where the isobar line is bending up near cape may. Exactly where mike D placed his idea for low placement...Could enhance some moisture. This could have been a monster storm if this phase occurred more south and west. But I can't complain for 2-4" in a winter like this.
The high is in a perfect positon as the cold air settles in, today Im at 42* as of 1:00 pm, so far colder than expected for todays highs.
I also keep Jan 30/31st 2010 in my memory very fresh, it did drop 4-12" from Philly south when flurries were the forecast. We were coming out of a very bad January weatherwise with a suppressive pattern which broke down after that event which led to 2 blizzards.