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Snow Probability - Mid Atlantic
The models have finally started to nail down a solution for Sat night-Sunday. Yes, there is a north trend but how far north can it really get?
Chances of Accumulating Snow
Hour 48 RGEM
It's going to be very tough to get any further north than NE philly. Light snow will try to infiltrate as far north as the lehigh valley, but don't expect much accumulation up that way. A north trend can only go so far, and looking at 500mb it shouldnt go much further north than what you are seeing on the NAM/RGEM. We are within 48 hours now so major changes will stop taking place today. Look for minor model adjustments tonight and tomorrow morning.
Blog started by Mdaniel91 , on 500 days ago
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Rick it's only weather and Rebel just gives his best idea on what's going to happen. Just because his way of doing it is not the same as the more in depth ones does not mean he should be bashed.
Also why are you posting the other blogs of people that said someone in our area will get 1-2 feet this weekend. Also all the PDII comments. None of that is going to happen yet you like to single out Rebel. I'm pretty sure you are like most of us and love snow. However we can't just like the people that find the scenarios we need for a big storm.
I'm sure if you add up all of his calls vs others on here he's not doing that bad. Who else is going to make a 5am update for us early birds. I"m in bed at 830 so the oZ model talk doesn't do for me.
Also Rebel, if Philly does get an inch don't close the account, although I highly doubt you have anything to worry about.
Tea Anyone?? Lets Party!!!
Also why are you posting the other blogs of people that said someone in our area will get 1-2 feet this weekend. Also all the PDII comments. None of that is going to happen yet you like to single out Rebel. I'm pretty sure you are like most of us and love snow. However we can't just like the people that find the scenarios we need for a big storm.
I'm sure if you add up all of his calls vs others on here he's not doing that bad. Who else is going to make a 5am update for us early birds. I"m in bed at 830 so the oZ model talk doesn't do for me.
Also Rebel, if Philly does get an inch don't close the account, although I highly doubt you have anything to worry about.
Tea Anyone?? Lets Party!!!
Marcus, the NAM has a tendency to wobble back and forth between off runs under 48. I wouldn't get too worked up over it. regardless 0Z tonight will be more telling and then the short range tomorrow.
Well. I'm gonna take the 18z for what it's worth, still holding my call until tomorrows 12z.
Rick let it go some of my calls were wrong and I jumped the gun a little bit. As I said if philly gets more than one inch of snow I will cancell my lwb account.
There's potential for more than a coating over a large part of the area including the potential for advisory level snows from Philly South. Definitely worth tracking regardless of what year it is.
Which call is it gonna be, rebel? remember these 'calls?'
Discussion started by Rebelg , on Monday, 30 January 2012 10:51 am
Zippie do da zippie de day.We have two storms one colud be rain changing to snow and one could be snow changing to rain..I an going to chill for a few days and sit back till Wednesday morning.First call just based on history and 40 years of watching storms.Snow changing to heavy rain in the city for the weekend storm.Talk soon I hope we get snow ,but its not looking good.
Rebelg,
Its starting to look better ,but this one is starting to look like a north and west storm.Lancaster reading Allentown ect .Poconos and elk should do well.Hartford CT east gets burried.
Keep up the great work, reb.
Discussion started by Rebelg , on Monday, 30 January 2012 10:51 am
Zippie do da zippie de day.We have two storms one colud be rain changing to snow and one could be snow changing to rain..I an going to chill for a few days and sit back till Wednesday morning.First call just based on history and 40 years of watching storms.Snow changing to heavy rain in the city for the weekend storm.Talk soon I hope we get snow ,but its not looking good.
Rebelg,
Its starting to look better ,but this one is starting to look like a north and west storm.Lancaster reading Allentown ect .Poconos and elk should do well.Hartford CT east gets burried.
Keep up the great work, reb.
Still popping the secondary in the same spot. Not much of a trend here. Damn precip stays south of Dover on this run'
18z nam is more north and west at 42hrs then the 12z was at 48 hrs, let's see what happens at 48-60 hrs!
I call dibs on taking over the 5 AM Update :p
Actually, that's way too early, let's go with the 7 AM Update instead.
Just messing with you, reb.
Actually, that's way too early, let's go with the 7 AM Update instead.
Just messing with you, reb.
Nice blog .The map is a good call for the inch that will fall on the grass and car roof tops.
"It's going to be very tough to get any further north than NE Philly." Gah! Why do I feel like Reading is always either too north or too south for a direct hit?!
The RGEM also looks like its gonna pop the secondary where the isobar line is bending up near cape may. Exactly where mike D placed his idea for low placement...Could enhance some moisture. This could have been a monster storm if this phase occurred more south and west. But I can't complain for 2-4" in a winter like this.
The high is in a perfect positon as the cold air settles in, today Im at 42* as of 1:00 pm, so far colder than expected for todays highs.
I also keep Jan 30/31st 2010 in my memory very fresh, it did drop 4-12" from Philly south when flurries were the forecast. We were coming out of a very bad January weatherwise with a suppressive pattern which broke down after that event which led to 2 blizzards.
I also keep Jan 30/31st 2010 in my memory very fresh, it did drop 4-12" from Philly south when flurries were the forecast. We were coming out of a very bad January weatherwise with a suppressive pattern which broke down after that event which led to 2 blizzards.
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