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Lehigh Valley PA Eastern PA Winter Outlook 2012-2013 January 8, 2013
We all love snow in Pennsylvania and we all know last year was a big bust not only for the snow lovers but for the skiers and snow boarders.
So how will the winter of 2012-2013 play out for places like Allentown Bethlehem Mt Pocono Easton Phillipsburg Emmaus Hanover Macungie Whitehall Saucon Northampton Bethel Nazareth Palmerton ?
OUR LIST OF OUR LOCAL AWARDS IN THE LEHIGH VALLEY & EASTERN PA AREA
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| Allentown Precipitation | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Annual |
| Precipitation (inches) | 3.2 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 43.5" |
| Days with Precipitation 0.01 inch or More | 11.0 | 10.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 12.0 | 11.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 10.0 | 11.0 | 125 |
| Monthly Snowfall (inches) | 9.1 | 9.2 | 5.9 | 0.6 | 0.05 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 6.1 | 32.3" |
How does Allentown stack up against the rest of Eastern PA ?
| Days | Place | Inches | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17.3 | Allentown | 32.9 | |
| 13.0 | Chambersburg | 31.1 | |
| 18.3 | George B. Stevenson Reservoir | 36.1 | |
| 19.4 | Harrisburg | 28.2 | |
| 7.5 | Lancaster | 18.3 | |
| 21.8 | Matamoras | 37.8 | |
| 7.7 | Norristown | 23.8 | |
| 12.2 | Philadelphia | 22.4 | |
| 29.9 | State College | 45.6 | |
| 23.7 | Towanda | 35.7 | |
| 33.0 | Wilkes-Barre & Scranton | 46.2 | |
| 23.9 | Williamsport | 36.0 | |
| 10.5 | York | 25.0 |
So lets move ahead to the Winter of 2012-2013
Where do we stand right now on my "BIG 3" factors to the winter ahead. These will change in the coming months but here is how I see them now and in the future.
The El Nino is NEUTRAL right now so the influence of a neutral will come in pieces. Expect a few impluses of El Nino in January and February.
The NAO or North Atlantic Oscillation is simply a "blocking" pattern that allow for cold air to slow down and allows LOW pressure to form off the coast and have time to explode into snowstorms. It bascially is the traffic cop of weather. Slow the pattern down and the odds of a juiced up system getting into Allentown start to increase. The NAO for mid to late December is -NAO or negative and that means an increase to the possible nor'easters.
The AO or Arctic Oscillation is like the traffic cop of Arctic Air and last winter the Arctic never got past the stop sign. This is a fickle index because too much Arctic air and all the storms dive south. We expect the AO to kick in again with a pool of cold air after the 17th of January.
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November and December bought some snow to Allentown and the Lehigh Valley so let's take a quick look at some numbers so far.
Allentown November Snowfall 1.4"
Allentown December Snowfall 6.2"
Allentown Snowfall so far...........7.6" Normal (7.4")
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Allentown 30.0" average 32.9"
Easton PA 29.3" average 30.5"
Reading PA 26.0" average 29.1"
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1. the cold air is in place but they are too far east so Trenton gets dumped on with a sharp cutoff and we get screwed.
2. it's too far inland and it's just a rainy mess that might give us an inch on the back end.
3. It's on target, but lacking moisture/disorganized.
Lets hope for at least one good one this year, that is right on target, with plenty of cold air and moisture, where both the front and back parts of the system deliver as promised!
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