Where do we stand right now on my "BIG 3" factors to the winter ahead. These will change in the coming months but here is how I see them now and in the future.
The El Nino is NEUTRAL right now so the influence of a neutral will come in pieces. Expect a few impluses of El Nino in January and February.
The NAO or North Atlantic Oscillation is simply a "blocking" pattern that allow for cold air to slow down and allows LOW pressure to form off the coast and have time to explode into snowstorms. It bascially is the traffic cop of weather. Slow the pattern down and the odds of a juiced up system getting into Allentown start to increase. The NAO for mid to late December is -NAO or negative and that means an increase to the possible nor'easters.
The AO or Arctic Oscillation is like the traffic cop of Arctic Air and last winter the Arctic never got past the stop sign. This is a fickle index because too much Arctic air and all the storms dive south. We expect the AO to kick in again with a pool of cold air after the 17th of January.
Rob what the HELL just happened on the 0z GFS and Euro, SE ridge wins out in a big way, never really get cold and MJO does a big U turn once it hits octane 6......Fluke run or continue the trend of showing future promise just to never come true
The coastal storms are what bring the heavy hitters and they can never make that turn (Septa bus analogy) just right. Here in Berks county it always seems like: 1. the cold air is in place but they are too far east so Trenton gets dumped on with a sharp cutoff and we get screwed. 2. it's too far inland and it's just a rainy mess that might give us an inch on the back end. 3. It's on target, but lacking moisture/disorganized.
Lets hope for at least one good one this year, that is right on target, with plenty of cold air and moisture, where both the front and back parts of the system deliver as promised!