So we are going to watch for severe weather for the third time in about 36 hours the question is do we have enough mojo in the atmosphere for this to happen later today and tonight ?
The cluster of storms west of Chicago is the area to watch as a short wave weak cold front crosses the region later today. It sure will be hot enough for storms but we need other factors to come together to get yet another round of vicious weather.
This is just in for the potential for WIND DAMAGE again today. The energy and storms will come from Ohio and Western PA so some of the same areas could get hit again.
This looks to be in range for a few severe storms. The NAM model shows the further south you go from Philly the better parameters for Severe Weather.
Lifted Index/700mb VV...
The Lifted is not as crazy as it what it was last night (-12.1) but it's in range and since we are looking at daytime heating that may be good enough for Severe Weather in SNJ and Delaware, maybe Philly Metro. The VV (Vertical Velocity) are within range as well.
The SWeat Index (Severe Weather Index) is over 300 which means isolated severe weather after 5pm is possible but most likely before 9pm tonight.
It's pretty primed at -4.5 and the wind gusts are in the range for severe weather but we are missing a few things.
The discussion from the NWS below is a good write-up to what happen this morning and how the atmosphere got a little more balanced today despite the heat right now. The chance for severe weather is much lower the next few hours but we'll watch for a few strong isolated storms for ya.
THE ATMOSPHERE REALLY GOT WORKED OVER THIS MORNING AS THE DERECHO
BARRELED THROUGH. DEWPOINTS REMAIN QUITE LOW COMPARED TO WHERE THEY
WERE YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME AND DUE TO THIS THE LIKELY HOOD OF
SEEING A WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT IS NEXT TO NOTHING.
LWX LAUNCHED AN 18Z SOUNDING TODAY AND IT SHOWS A DRAMATIC CHANGE FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY. CAPE IS DROPPED A MERE 85 PERCENT, WHILE THE LIFTED
INDEXES ARE CUT INTO THIRDS. THE LEFTOVER MCV IS STILL IN CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA BUT WITH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, AND A WEAKER
MID-LEVEL VORT MAX PASSING THROUGH, THE EARLIER GUSTY WINDS WORDING
WAS REMOVED FROM THE GRIDS.
IF THE CURRENT TRACKING OF THE SHOWERS IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA STAYS ITS COURSE A FEW SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH DELMARVA BY 5PM. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAY STILL OCCUR WITH THESE SHOWERS, HOWEVER NOT SEEING STRONGER UPDRAFTS AROUND DOUBT WE SEE MANY CG STRIKES.
OVERNIGHT, THE SHOWERS WILL END ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES, WHILE WE
START TO CLEAR OUT...CLOUD-WISE. WITH THE COOLER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT UNDER