It's a good thing the El Nino is being favored by the models, but the problem I have right now is how it will take too long for the El Nino to happen. I'm hoping this will change, but the current average is not in our favor. http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/dynamical2.gif That picture has the average shown in black. As you can see, we are in a La Nina currently, so we are not in a good situation. http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/SST_table.gif Here is the forecast. We barely lean towards an El Nino, and by NDJ, we are at 0.0. By the end of winter, we are in the 0.2-0.3 area. The ENSO won't have a nice effect for us.
I know we still have long ways to go, but CURRENT sayings are not going for a good winter in Lehigh Valley area. Oh yes, and read this very informational post created by another meteorologist. http://www.theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2013/07/2013-2014-winter-update-july-2013.html
Like I said, I bet there will be a lot of changes, I'm just noting these things. And I'd appreciate it if nobody gets mad at me for this post, like how I said this without any hate.
I don't see anything indicating any chance for a decent snowfall anywhere on the horizon. I really wouldn't be surprised at all if this winter ends with just a couple inches of snow for the entire season.
loI I love how people think that just because january and december werent snowy then they can just assume that rob was wrong this whole time. well..... stop complaining! Basically, this website has been flagging FEBRUARY as a big snow month this whole time, and rob just explained that explicitly above. say it with me: FEB RU AR Y. People need to just wait! Jeez!