I looked over tons of information from a statistical stand point....shook the magical snow globe...carried the one....crossed my fingers and came up with a statistical-climatological-most likely look for this winter. This is based on the current state of El Nino...NAO PDO & AO and more.
GO TO THE BOTTOM OF THE BLOG FOR SNOW TOTALS FOR PA NJ DE
Below is a graph of the last 131 years of snow tracking in Phiadelphia...
The last 12 winters....
(3) with 5" or less
(3) with 40" or more
So with this in mind we are most likely to slot next winter in the 10-30" range due to the stats and most likely a WEAK EL NINO. This is a good sign if you like snow in your hometown !
Since 1880 We have seen....
(14) Winters under 9" of snow
(12) Winters over 40" of snow
So when you look back at the last 132 winters in Philadelphia it's about even on the big winters and the little winters. Only (3) times in history did we go back to back winters under 9" of snow. That was 1880-1890.....1930-1932 and 1960-1962.
The Chance of 9" or less this winter is 22%
The Chance of 12"+ of snow this winter is 63%
The Chance of 40"+ of snow this winter is 10%
Now that El Nino looks to be a non factor we'll look toward the NAO and AO for greater impact on the Delaware and Lehigh Valley. This includes South Jersey, Northern DE and NE Maryland.
I don't see anything indicating any chance for a decent snowfall anywhere on the horizon. I really wouldn't be surprised at all if this winter ends with just a couple inches of snow for the entire season.
loI I love how people think that just because january and december werent snowy then they can just assume that rob was wrong this whole time. well..... stop complaining! Basically, this website has been flagging FEBRUARY as a big snow month this whole time, and rob just explained that explicitly above. say it with me: FEB RU AR Y. People need to just wait! Jeez!
Blue Blaster, yes youd be surprised of how much more snow Richmond gets than Virginia Beach! Richmond is on the I-95 corridor and Richmond averages about a foot or more. You're leaving beautiful Norfolk skyline, thats a lovely city. I try to make it to Norfolk and Virginia Beach every summer. Well, Tennessee doesent get as much snow than up in Virginia so just keep hoping for it. Maybe youll get some southern hospitality out of mother nature LOL! Something we cant get here
Brenda, thanks for the response. My hometown is Virginia Beach and the winters for 09-10 and 10-11 were awesome for them. There is usually a big difference between the beaches and the western part of the state.
I'll be driving along I-81 on Thursday and Friday (moving to Memphis this week) and hoping for good weather. On move in day (Saturday), the temp down there is supposed to be around 70 - wow.
Hope you will get some snow later in January and for the remainder of winter.
And - see ya'll (southern term, ya know) later next week. Think snow!
Hi Rob, Are there any more updated cities for the Mid Atlantic for my area? I live in central Virginia, I dont know which outlook to go by. Do you have one for Lynchburg-Roanoke or maybe even Richmond metro? If not, can you just tell me what your thinking is for my area? Dec-Feb averages 18-20 inches of snow per year. We still havent had any snow but a dusting :( I just dont think we can have above normal snowfall this year