I looked over tons of information from a statistical stand point....shook the magical snow globe...carried the one....crossed my fingers and came up with a statistical-climatological-most likely look for this winter. This is based on the current state of El Nino...NAO PDO & AO and more.

OUR DELAWARE / LEHIGH VALLEY WEATHER AWARDS

CLICK HERE FOR THE FACTORS INTO THIS WINTER OUTLOOK

GO TO THE BOTTOM OF THE BLOG FOR SNOW TOTALS FOR PA NJ DE

Below is a graph of the last 131 years of snow tracking in Phiadelphia...

The last 12 winters....

(3) with 5" or less

(3) with 40" or more

So with this in mind we are most likely to slot next winter in the 10-30" range due to the stats and most likely a WEAK EL NINO. This is a good sign if you like snow in your hometown !

Since 1880 We have seen....

(14) Winters under 9" of snow

(12) Winters over 40" of snow

So when you look back at the last 132 winters in Philadelphia it's about even on the big winters and the little winters.  Only (3) times in history did we go back to back winters under 9" of snow. That was 1880-1890.....1930-1932 and 1960-1962.

The Chance of 9" or less this winter is 22%

The Chance of 12"+ of snow this winter is 63%

The Chance of 40"+ of snow this winter is 10%

Now that El Nino looks to be a non factor we'll look toward the NAO and AO for greater impact on the Delaware and Lehigh Valley. This includes South Jersey, Northern DE and NE Maryland.

CLICK FOR INDEPTH LEHIGH VALLEY SNOWFALL FORECAST

 READING-EASTON

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