So Tropical Storm Debby is leaving her mark on the sunshine start with up to 15" of rain in places and due to the slow movement the future have been quite uncertain since the storm got its name a few days ago.
So with all this moisture loaded up in this system from the Atlantic and Gulf does Debby have enough to move up the coast and bring a "Irene" like storm once again ?
POSSIBLE STORM TRACKS FOR DEBBY
If you look at the tracks you can see that most play the out to sea type of track but a few things could happen to change this final track. First off the models are still having a tough time plotting a storm that is barely moving and this can make for a Ouija board type of outcome.
This storm is all over the place and with no real structure to the system it becomes hard for the models (esp. BAM suite) to get a handle on this one. We need to look at the surface map above the Carolinas the next few days to see how this might play out for the east coast.
WEDNESDAY P.M. WX MAP SUNDAY A.M. WX MAP
If Debby can maintain the core of its tropical self you gotta wonder if this storm could become a tropical storm off the coast of South Carolina come Sunday. It sure has a chance with all the warm water and the short route across northern Florida.
MONDAY'S MAP...IT'S ALL ABOUT THE COLD FRONT
This is still a week away but with the uncertain track at this point and weather pattern it's worth keeping in the back of your mind for now. We'll update this all this week to see how this "might" play out. What do you think ? Will Debby come up the coast ? Let us know.
It looks like the Debby threat ( if there was ever one) has ended for our area. The main issue in the next 7-10 days will be the extreme heat ( looks like 90's thru the entire period). But it is summer time in the Mid Atlantic so it is to be expected.
Regardless if Debby makes the turn up the coast in Myrtle Beach strong rip currents and waves in the 5-8 foot range will most likely be the rule through the end of the week into the weekend.
Like Rob said stay careful and heed the warnings of the guards if they should recommend only knee deep water rules.
Sounds like fun down there in the Myrtle Beach area though we should have a better handle on what Debby does here in the coming days Looks like the GFS at 12z keeps Debby safely out off the coast in relation to Myrtle Beach but we shall see what happens still not sold yet.
Kevin, I hope you are right with your 30% shot of it coming up the coast. I am currently in Myrtle Beach and while it would be pretty interesting to be down here while it developed, it is nice to go into the water and not have to worry about rip currents, waves ect, especially with a 2 year old. Should be a fun week or so watching Debby....Debby Does the East Coast 2012!!!!
I would give Debby a 30% shot of coming up the coast at this point with 70% shot going out to sea.
Right now like you said Rob with the slow movement of the storm and also just as important the organization of the storm models will have a hard time with the system.
Now we have to learn a lesson from the model runs from the past weekend wanting to take Debby to Texas mainly the Euro, Canadian and NAM and a few others while the GFS said no no it heads across Florida. (The winner here the GFS which up to two model runs ago leading the pack with Debby coming up the coast).
This was likely caused because we had a mid-level circulation and a low -level circulation.
This is the case once again today where we have the low level circulation left behind just off the coastal Bend of Florida and I do mean right off the coast like 40 miles or so moving east at 3mph.
The mid-level circulation has been ripped off to the Atlantic already.
Now the models will latch onto the low-level swirl.
The question is can Debby start the rebuilding process and then be influenced by a building East Coast Ridge move back towards the coast and then be scooped up by the next trough approaching the East Coast Come Sunday July 1st?
Talking six days away here so I like your comparison to a ouiji board lots and lots of variables and timing issues to be worked out by us and the models. Good Luck with this one should be a lot of learning and fun to track regardless of the outcome. So sit back and watch what happens.