May looks as though it will be below normal, however, it takes but just a couple of days over 90, possibly just one to spike May above by a small margin. I’d like to give a quick “refresher” on our past temperature anomalies, 1. We’ve been above normal nearly every month for the 2 years prior to this. Going back to Autumn, we would have been below normal almost every month up until now. Had it not been for a couple of days of abnormally high temperatures during January and April, just to name a two. An explanation as to why this is the case is to be written below.
Back to Back La Nina’s, the 2011 being a rather strong one, has lead to cooling worldwide. People in our area hate Nina’s because Nina’s, especially strong ones are awful for us, negative nao or not. Find out how many winters in our area have seen a hecs with a strong Nina, there are 1-2 anomalies in the past century but that’s about it. That said La Nina after La Nina sets up cold winters around here. I am currently (and this is 7-8 months out), forecasting a Nino to develop. If you want a cold and snowy winter, root for a Nino to come on late, in the Sept/Oct/Nov., time frame with Kelvin wave after Kelvin wave pushing warm waterthroughout the Nino region. Also, root for Nino 3.4 to go to +.7-1.5. Do not root for a strong enso either way, as they both hurt us in different ways.
Between the global cooling from the recent stretch of Ninas and the likely developing Nino we look to be setting up something with the most potential since 2010-2011. If we were to get a –nao and a –ao and a +pna and a mjo in region 7-8-1 during the height of the season we’d be looking great Please bear in mind that I have seen everything one could ever hope for and see nothing happen, many times, also, a lot could go wrong with this, (and I know that a lot of you know this already know this, this is more for new members/non-member readers that are new to meteorology). I will be watching the nao. I am proud to say that I have 100% verification on nao forecasts from 2 to 6 weeks out, usually 4 weeks out for three years running. We’ll see.
For Winter 2013/2014 in our area, I am, from nearly 8-12 months out going to go with a forecast, it is really more of an outlook-
Bear in mind that the pdo and the Polar Vortex positioning as well as the Statospheric anomalies are also important, among other things, which I will be watching closely.
One, significantly below average temperatures.
Two, above average snow. 23-29”+?
Three, Coastal storms, more Miller A than B, though Miller B’s can put down a ton of snow.
This forecast is for the area from Marcus’ “shaft zone,” westward to the 5 county area, ABE, Maryland and Delaware. This is not to say that other areas will not be hit hard, I believe that they will…more to come.
I’d like to also say that KU storms are in a book for a reason, they rarely happen, so to expect them frequently in setting yourself up for failure. That said, average wise a KU is in our future and the back to back Nina’s helped.
A true forecast will be out not too long from now. Much more to come.
I wrote: "Two, above average snow. 23-29”+?" The question mark is a typo and there are a few others, which is not like me, but I'm sure that you guys get the point, so I'm not going to edit this, actually, I might, but not now as I have a lot going on in my personal life. Thanks again for reading this. (Since this is a forecast/outlook, I wanted to make sure that the snowfall outlook for our area didn't appear to be something that I thought of with no reasoning behind it, which the typo ? implies).
Also, with the NAO and AO going back positive, I believe that a short lived, lag effect will take place. This is a quick add-on to my comment from a while back that the 13-20th of May, will see above normal temperatures, likely significantly above normal . A contributing factor in my coming to that conclusion was the ECMWF weeklies and other modeling at the time of the earlier comment; I did not use the ECMWF weekly prognosis verbatim, I rather looked at the overall synoptics and came to a conclusion.