The chart above shows the history of El Nino by looking at tree rings the past 1,100 years. We had a pretty good run at strong El Nino's in the 1700's and the overall trend is toward stronger El Nino's.
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ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active
IRI Probabilistic ENSO Prediction for NINO3.4 Region
CAN WE DETECT EL NINO A NEW WAY ??? TAKE A LOOK
ENSO/EL NINO WATCH - Weather forecasters have long known that El Niño events can throw seasonal climate patterns off kilter, particularly during winter months. Now, new research from NOAA and the University of Washington suggests that a different way to detect El Niño could help forecasters predict the unusual weather it causes.
A network of buoys that spans the Pacific, the TAO-Triton array, observes conditions in the upper ocean and is essential for forecasting El Niño months in advance, and for monitoring it as it grows and decays. A new study, just published in the February issue of the Journal of Climate, describes an atmospheric El Niño signal that is very strongly associated with U.S. winter weather impacts. Ed Harrison, Ph.D. of the NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory in Seattle and Andrew Chiodi, Ph.D., of the NOAA Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean at the University of Washington, co-authored the paper.
"When it comes to El Niño's weather impacts, we are always looking for ways to improve our forecasting skill," said Harrison. "Our goal is to extract the most useful information to predict El Niño seasonal weather anomalies."
Harrison and Chiodi looked at all El Niño events that were identified by sea surface temperature measurements since 1979. They then examined satellite imagery for these events and found that a subset of the events showed a sharp dip in heat radiating from the tops of deep convective clouds, an indicator known as outgoing long-wave radiation or OLR. When comparing the El Niño events to historical weather records, the scientists found that the El Niño events with drops in OLR were the ones most likely to play havoc with winter weather.
They also found that El Niño events with no corresponding drop in OLR did not produce statistically significant anomalies in weather patterns. The dip in heat from deep convective clouds usually occurred before winter, so the timing of the signal could help forecasters improve winter seasonal outlooks, the scientists said.
"By sorting El Niño events into two categories, one with OLR changes and one without, forecasters may be able to produce winter seasonal outlooks with more confidence than previously thought possible," Harrison said. El Niño refers to a warming of waters along the equator in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. Through its influence on the atmosphere, El Niño shifts tropical rainfall patterns which causes further shifts in weather around the globe, including milder winters in western Canada and parts of the northern United States and wetter winters in the some southern states. Industry sectors from energy and construction to transportation and tourism are keenly interested in how El Niño will affect their costs.
El Niño-influenced weather can affect fuel oil demand, travel delays, and retail sales. Better accuracy in El Niño predictions could help industry to prepare for its impacts more efficiently.
Deb, the locals are wrong. The average high temperature for Quebec City is much lower than ours, by 10-15 degrees, and its average low temperature is much lower (for August anyway). It is considered humid, but it is in a continental humidity class. As a matter of fact, the same one as Aspen, Colorado, and Aspens average temperatures and record high (for August), are very similar as well, if that puts things in perspective. My light layer idea is my suggestion, hahaha. (I'm going to paste this to where, I originally started to answer your question).
Rob, going back to prior to the industrial revolution and hundreds of thousands of years before that, we see proof through ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica that the global temperature was much warmer 2/3+ hundred thousand years ago than it was at the warmest part of our recent warm cycle. Our planet warms and cools in cycles, from the late 1950's through 1980, people thought that we were going into an ice age. This ice age thinking was so profound that very powerful men in the white house notified the president, (Nixon), regarding the "danger" and advised that there would be catastrophic damage from this. We have seen ~zero/zero increase in global temperature for well over a decade, (when at this time, we were supposed to be broiling). The global sea rise is junk science as well, the way that "they," presented it. I could go on and on, but I would love for us on the site to have a spirited discussion from both sides regarding this. That would be a great and informative debate.
Hey Rob, OLR anomalies are definitely a help in ENSO forecasts. I found it rather interesting that most of the modeling predicting SST anomalies in Nino region 3.4 above zero were dynamical models, while most all of the ones predicting negative anomalies were statistical models. I believe that though this is a long, long way out, that this will bust. My reasoning for saying that is, first, the "Spring Barrier," where much higher amounts of rising air due to the onset of the warm season cause computer guidance to fall in overall verification/become less reliable, which is why this only happens in the Northern Hemisphere since there is so much more land and therefor additional lift which lowers model verification scores as opposed to the ocean laden Southern Hemisphere. Also, I think that the dynamical models are more accurate for this type of outlook and in many cases in general, (ECMWF vs. CSU CLIPR?). Furthermore, I think that the warmer anomalies that progressed eastward are the beginning of change. The MJO will help dictate things through Kelvin waves propagating eastward and warming the region as well as both oceanic and atmospheric Rossby waves, which as you clearly must know can increase sst's, also move east and the atmospheric Rossbys can help to create a synoptic environment that intensifies the effects of a developing ENSO anomaly. I could go on and on, but all this being said, and I have been saying for a very long time, I expect an El Nino to form, toward the end of the year, I do not think it will be a strong Nino at this time but an El nino between +.7 and 1.5/1.7 is my guess from ~6-8 months out, hahaha.
Hello again, it's John Manetta, this is in agreemeant.with myself, you, and who knows how many other talented forecasters out there. It is likely to verify since at the very least, you and I are in agreement on this outlook along with other talented forecasters, I'm sure that there are as a of fact, I know that they are, I only hope that they get word of this site, outside of the mets/focasteras we have here on the site.
A caviot, this Winter outlook, even this far away, (the first week of May), is a pretty confident/ballsy one. It islikewly to pay off.
By the way, I was in a serious rush typing thia, ao please excuse any grammatival errors, (I jnowtoy guys get the [point, but great grammer without misspellings makes the sute look more "prodesional,." That's just a thought.
Rob...please tell me Central Ohio is going to see big snow! We've had 2 inches here and 5 inches there but nothing to make the winter interesting (though we have seen more snow than last winter). Also looking forward to colder temps. The dogs drag in too much mud! Thank you, I enjoy your blog!
Meteorological winter is 1/3 in the books, and we're up to zero inches of snow, the next 2 weeks features zero snow, which will put as at 50% of winter in the books, still at zero inches of snow. It's time to start scaling back some winter forecasts.