I will continue to throw darts and most will model hug and wish for a big storm next week..Possible outcomes ...storm stays south, storm brings rain,storm bring snow then rain.storm bring all snow. For a closer look at next week storm stay tuned this weekend for a bulls eye forecast bye Sunday night or Monday morning.
Lee, I will be writing up something soon regarding the threat. I for one have been highlighting this time period for a long time and to see the models trending more and more toward a stormy solution (led by the best model) is a good feeling. Furthermore, those that believe that the 4/5/6 (to the 7th now) timeframe is not a threat is not all that good at analyzing atmospheric data, numerical guidance or much else regarding medium/long range weather forecasting or guidance trend analysis. I never, ever "wishcast" or "model-hug" either, as a matter of fact, I often times break from what the models are saying completely, as anyone that is a good forecaster occasionally does. Computer guidance is just that, guidance and taking it into account, analyzing the current atmospheric data (soundings) and looking at the forecast soundings out to about 72 hours and then using the sounding analysis between 0-72 hrs to assist you in knowing which models are on the right track and which are not and finally using all of that data and one's own talent in the area to make a forecast is how to do it.
P.S. Brian, I just read my own comments to make sure that I didn't leave a key-word out or something and in reading my comment regarding the models usually breaking down the block too early, I noticed that it seems to imply something much different than what I meant to say. By definition, yes they do, but barely (and there is some general disagreement that this is even the case), meaning that most of the time the forecast is pretty good. A better way to put it is this: many times in the past the models have broken down this block too early and the fact that there is such good agreement among them in keeping the block in place into mid-month makes the chance of us breaking into a spring-like pattern (i.e. 60+ degree days) unlikely.
Phillywhiteout, by the way, I have been highlighting 4/5/6 as a threat for a long time now and though my reason for why has not changed, nor has my viewed level of threat, it is now showing up very consistently on the best model and more and more on the others.
Brian, regarding your question on whether this (or any upcoming storm), will be a storm that breaks the pattern toward the 60 degree days that you're hoping for (whether it hits us would make no difference and it will form, the location of cyclogenesis and track are the questions), that depends. If you believe the more recent runs of the gfs suite, then yes, otherwise, no. Under most circumstances a blend of the guidance is the way to go, however under these circumstances a blend will not answer your question. These blocks are very stubborn and many times hang on longer than modeled. That being said and given that almost all of the guidance keeps the block into mid month, I would say probably not, especially taking into account that, as I just said, they usually break it down too early. If you want the block to break down from a change in teleconnections (others), massive change in height fields, influx of flux, (.....) from and contributed by one or more extremely powerful poleward moving storms generated on or off of the east coast, then I would hope that the medium/long range gfs trend continues. All of that said, the short answer is; probably not.
Brian, the nao sharply rising toward neutral/positive territory is exactly what a snowlover would want to happen. As I and many others on here have been saying for a long time, the best case scenario for a snowstorm from D.C. to Boston is a negative nao that is sharply rising, take a look at the first Presidents day storm, or the blizzard of '93 for a couple of the many examples. That being said, we can get snowstorms with a nao that is neutral or positive and sharply falling, though that happens less frequently, or we can get them with a positive nao (less frequently still), see the 2000 or '95 storms for example.
Yeah I've seen that weatherman71. Still pretty far out but not looking good. I have a feeling if this storm does turn up the coast with the -NAO heading for neutral or positive territory that we will end up with a cold rain around I-95 and snow north and west.
I'd rather have sunny then a cold rain. Just hard to get excited about a potential like this in March. Too many things need to be perfect and it often ends in disappointment more times then not.
For those who keep saying you have to have a -NAO to get a good snowstorm in the east, well you are currently seeing what too much of -NAO can do as all the models are currently taking this OTS. The -NAO is not a must for an east coast storm and that thinking is flawed IMO. What you really want is a transitioning NAO more than you want a purely -NAO to increase the chances of an east coast snow storm. Whether it's going from positive towards negative or ideally from negative towards neutral back to positive. A prolonged -NAO index below -1.5 or -2 you are going to be looking at suppression more likely than not as we currently are. Obviously lots can change but the blocking has to loosen up or this will go OTS.
Good deal Rebel. I'm also feeling we won't have enough cold air down in our area. I'm not really wanting a storm that creates it's own cold and then leaves us with mush for a couple of days. I love snow but it's go no staying power now.
I do see a quick accuweather flash of 61 next weekend. I know this will change 10 times if not more before then but it's nice to see the long range has consistently more 50s and occasionally 60 on it. I'm feeling good brother. Time for Tshirts is almost here! Can you dig it? Yes we can!