The European model continues to show a big snow storm for the Philadelphia area. DC-NYC would see 6+" on this run. The Euro shows the s/w coming in slower and rotates around an upper level low over Lake Michigan. As the s/w rotates around and takes a neg tilt it merges the two together with a vortex redeveloping off the Mid Atlantic coast. This is a perfect set up for a heavy snow event. If the capture happens perfectly we could see a much bigger event, but it can also trend the other way and miss to the south. However, I would not put too much stock in the GFS which does not show much at all as the progressive nature of the s/w gets sheared apart.
Hurricane had us getting snow 2 weeks ago with that 952 low in the ocean too that missed way east and skirted the jersey shore. This storm will most likely end up the same way. Out trough will be too Far East/ULL too late. Timing has been off all year, I doubt it comes together march 8th. I'm already done with winter weather and ready for Spring, baseball has started, to me that signals thr end of snow for philly 95% of the time. This has been the worst winter of my lifetime that I can remember.
If this storm shows up like this 2-4 days out ill be interested. But 10 days isn't worth the stress.
The only reason I might give this thing a chance this early in the game (which I usually dont do) is because glenn "hurricane" schwartz seems to really be jumping on board. He has mentioned the chance of snow for next week and talked about how the Eurpoean has really suggested snow for next week. Hurricane is giving this thing a chance...but obviously its still too early
I'm not talking specifically about this storm. I'm talking about a pattern I see on this site. Certain mets will present all the model data, then find reasons to discard any model (or specific model run) that doesn't support a snowy solution. I struggle to remember just one instance where a met has thrown a model out b/c they don't agree with a snowy solution. Sure, weather is a tricky science and I'm not half as smart as the mets on here. But errors are made, and busts happen. But this site almost always go with the snowiest solution and busts on the high side. And I'm not referring to just this site or any one met. I'm talking about majority of the online weather blogs.
I'm not angry that it didn't snow. And it's certainly not the mets fault when it doesn't snow. I'm just pointing out that snowy models are talked about in detail, while un-snowy models are discarded. Happens all the time. Reason? The possibility of snow is fun to talk about and drives traffic to the site.
The pattern definitely supports this sort of outcome. Teleconnections shape up nicely. Ridging is good enough. This could wind up further suppressed as the Euro Ens show but definitely worth tracking.
As for the bashing, I didn't read anywhere that Mike said this storm as depicted is happening. If you are getting upset with the missed opportunities its not a problem with Mike discussing them as potential events. It's your fault for not knowing how to interpret this stuff. What we do here is discuss potential. If you don't know the meaning of potential so you get angry when it doesn't come to fruition you should really toughen up.
Remember, the pattern was about as perfect as you could get in 2010 and we had our best winter ever. But even that year more than half of the potential events discussed did not pan out...
Thanks Mike for pointing out the possibilities of snow to our area. I agree with Jeff... it's the tracking and the possibility that make winter fun. Albeit disappointing this year but who knows what the next 10 days will bring!! I have a little bit of hope and I'm hanging on till the end!!
This is a free website and we're not forcing anyone to login or to read or comment on these blogs. Not fair to call Mike out for doing what he does... analyze the models/trends and present them to all of us who want to know about it.
This will disappear..go east/west/south/north. Philly won't see anymore snow... I don't believe these models past 3 days anymore. It would be nice to go out with a snow event in this awful winter. But what's going to change to bring Philly snow now? I doubt nothing..this will most likely end up missing us and giving someone very close a nice snow event..or the fish just like every big storm and trough has been going..east.