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Euro shows DC-PHL-NYC Snowstorm
The European model continues to show a big snow storm for the Philadelphia area. DC-NYC would see 6+" on this run. The Euro shows the s/w coming in slower and rotates around an upper level low over Lake Michigan. As the s/w rotates around and takes a neg tilt it merges the two together with a vortex redeveloping off the Mid Atlantic coast. This is a perfect set up for a heavy snow event. If the capture happens perfectly we could see a much bigger event, but it can also trend the other way and miss to the south. However, I would not put too much stock in the GFS which does not show much at all as the progressive nature of the s/w gets sheared apart.
Blog started by Mike DeFino , on 83 days ago
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Not a surprise that Hurricane is on board. He hugs the Euro, so it makes sense. Let's go snow!!!! End this tease of a winter with a bang and make many members (dart board throwers) eat some serious crow!!
Hey 36, keep the shovels handy anyway, the hype BS may start to pile up pretty high over the next 3 or 4 days.
Sounds like the Euro is trying to show off, while the GFS is just keeping it real. Folks in Virginia have to keep an eye on this one.
I sense we're about to get sucked in again. And to think I took the shovels out of my garage and put them in the shed last weekend after Rebel said Winter was over.
I was hearing that 12z had a sharp cutoff from north west of I95. The good thing is the storm is there and it's still a ways away.
Marcus is right, it's hard to be optimistic when discussing a possible MARCH snowstorm considering how the rest of the winter has gone. Howevever, the Euro has been good with sniffing out BIG storms and has now shown this one on two straight runs. So it's "something to watch" at this point which seems to be the common theme this winter.
12Z Euro still has the storm. Ukie, CMC much closer to Euro than GFS. Not bad trends. Long way to go...
For what reason?
Tool bags can't give advise bro, sorry.
Sorry but 198 hours out on a model is the same thing as 10 days, it's just a general statement. Y'all will learn.
7-10 days is pretty much the same window of accuracy on the models, especially this year.
Tool bags can't give advise bro, sorry.
Sorry but 198 hours out on a model is the same thing as 10 days, it's just a general statement. Y'all will learn.
7-10 days is pretty much the same window of accuracy on the models, especially this year.
Marcus Wild,
You should def consider seeing a shrink. Mental help should be in your near future.
You should def consider seeing a shrink. Mental help should be in your near future.
Your right....it is too early, but I will keep it in the back of my mind as the chance is there. You never know....but its more like 7 days away
Hurricane had us getting snow 2 weeks ago with that 952 low in the ocean too that missed way east and skirted the jersey shore. This storm will most likely end up the same way. Out trough will be too Far East/ULL too late. Timing has been off all year, I doubt it comes together march 8th. I'm already done with winter weather and ready for Spring, baseball has started, to me that signals thr end of snow for philly 95% of the time. This has been the worst winter of my lifetime that I can remember.
If this storm shows up like this 2-4 days out ill be interested. But 10 days isn't worth the stress.
If this storm shows up like this 2-4 days out ill be interested. But 10 days isn't worth the stress.
The only reason I might give this thing a chance this early in the game (which I usually dont do) is because glenn "hurricane" schwartz seems to really be jumping on board.
He has mentioned the chance of snow for next week and talked about how the Eurpoean has really suggested snow for next week. Hurricane is giving this thing a chance...but obviously its still too early
He has mentioned the chance of snow for next week and talked about how the Eurpoean has really suggested snow for next week. Hurricane is giving this thing a chance...but obviously its still too early
I'm not talking specifically about this storm. I'm talking about a pattern I see on this site. Certain mets will present all the model data, then find reasons to discard any model (or specific model run) that doesn't support a snowy solution. I struggle to remember just one instance where a met has thrown a model out b/c they don't agree with a snowy solution. Sure, weather is a tricky science and I'm not half as smart as the mets on here. But errors are made, and busts happen. But this site almost always go with the snowiest solution and busts on the high side. And I'm not referring to just this site or any one met. I'm talking about majority of the online weather blogs.
I'm not angry that it didn't snow. And it's certainly not the mets fault when it doesn't snow. I'm just pointing out that snowy models are talked about in detail, while un-snowy models are discarded. Happens all the time. Reason? The possibility of snow is fun to talk about and drives traffic to the site.
I'm not angry that it didn't snow. And it's certainly not the mets fault when it doesn't snow. I'm just pointing out that snowy models are talked about in detail, while un-snowy models are discarded. Happens all the time. Reason? The possibility of snow is fun to talk about and drives traffic to the site.
The pattern definitely supports this sort of outcome. Teleconnections shape up nicely. Ridging is good enough. This could wind up further suppressed as the Euro Ens show but definitely worth tracking.
As for the bashing, I didn't read anywhere that Mike said this storm as depicted is happening. If you are getting upset with the missed opportunities its not a problem with Mike discussing them as potential events. It's your fault for not knowing how to interpret this stuff. What we do here is discuss potential. If you don't know the meaning of potential so you get angry when it doesn't come to fruition you should really toughen up.
Remember, the pattern was about as perfect as you could get in 2010 and we had our best winter ever. But even that year more than half of the potential events discussed did not pan out...
As for the bashing, I didn't read anywhere that Mike said this storm as depicted is happening. If you are getting upset with the missed opportunities its not a problem with Mike discussing them as potential events. It's your fault for not knowing how to interpret this stuff. What we do here is discuss potential. If you don't know the meaning of potential so you get angry when it doesn't come to fruition you should really toughen up.
Remember, the pattern was about as perfect as you could get in 2010 and we had our best winter ever. But even that year more than half of the potential events discussed did not pan out...
Thanks Mike for pointing out the possibilities of snow to our area. I agree with Jeff... it's the tracking and the possibility that make winter fun. Albeit disappointing this year but who knows what the next 10 days will bring!! I have a little bit of hope and I'm hanging on till the end!!
This is a free website and we're not forcing anyone to login or to read or comment on these blogs. Not fair to call Mike out for doing what he does... analyze the models/trends and present them to all of us who want to know about it.
This is a free website and we're not forcing anyone to login or to read or comment on these blogs. Not fair to call Mike out for doing what he does... analyze the models/trends and present them to all of us who want to know about it.
I just have to ask... Whenever a model shows snow, you post it. Whenever a model show no (or less) snow, you throw it out, and offer some explanation as to why?
The difference between forecasted snow and actual snow is unreal. I respect your science, but this all seems a lot like wishcasting to me.
I guess it makes good sense, from a business standpoint. Talk about snow storms generate more hits for weather blogs, and more hits mean more ad revenue.
The difference between forecasted snow and actual snow is unreal. I respect your science, but this all seems a lot like wishcasting to me.
I guess it makes good sense, from a business standpoint. Talk about snow storms generate more hits for weather blogs, and more hits mean more ad revenue.
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