Figured I'd put out a quick blog to EXPLAIN why the models are not shoiwng a MECS in a pattern that is quite favorable. With the NAO nearing a -1.5 and the PNA at or near a +2 you would think a MECS would show up on the EC later this week and bust some of the no snow forecasts that get put out on this site daily. Well, those people who forecast no snow everyday are lucking out once again, as a massive ULL looks to sit and spin away in the northeast this week and basically squash anything that tries to form. If the ULL is weaker than modeld or positioned differently, we can get a surprise storm to form, but time is running out. I would say the chances are very low, however, until Tuesdays storm gets by us (which becomes that annoying low), I wouldn't nail that coffin shut yet on later this week or early next week.
I'm not entirely sure I'm clear on why the people who are saying it hasn't/doesn't/won't snow here this winter are getting bashed. So far, they've been right. This entire season, I haven't seen one reasonable snow-making pattern that held out long enough to even look like potential. Maybe I wasn't looking hard enough. And maybe I'm still not because all I see are long-shot odds, the same kind that don't pan out in the vast majority of times when the pattern has been similar. And now it's practically March. Could it snow? Sure. Will it? Almost certainly not. Like I said, I'm not sure why people are getting bashed for saying so. If we get a decent snowfall, I welcome people to return to this comment and bash me until I'm bleeding from the head. LOL.
I really thought the process was beginning with Tuesday/Wed event.
The process is in the making as we breathe, Observe on the gfs the 50/50 low is trying to get into place backing in from the east during tuesdays low formation to our south. This is a sign of blocking taking place.
Nailing down dates is hard, stuff like this comes outta no where, I do think from Wednesday forward we are in a better pattern than all winter long. I still am not sold on the GLC Tuesday nite being mainly rain, the on land developing low can still trend more east.
We have the blocking..Nao/ The Ao tanks this week.. The Pna tops out..
The trough has to establish then all the clutter has to clear in the atmosphere, then the cold sets up, then we watch for the base of the trough to grow with moisture and we watch the models develop a low that comes outta no-where.
This will happen because the set up will be condusive for such a process..
That storm is already on the GFS at 168hr. Not too far out. Keep in mind: 1) The GFS has a progressive bias. 2) That 3/1 "storm" might go to 50/50 and push back trough axis further west. Potential is there, not giving up on this winter.
FSU what are you talking about? There is a 50/50 block in the right place with the cold air locked in for 2 weeks as a 960 MB sets up off NC coast and it sweeps up north to hammer us at hour 7272 (Christmas Eve). Squint hard and you can see it. We just need to be patient and follow each model run as if it is the word of God. Should be fun.