Hi all - quick post on my updated odds based on my post the other day.

One quick note - as discussed before - the great setup doesn't guarantee anything - and it looks to be headed that way.

Also - at this time of year, when looking at models: (1) more important to look at all levels to determine temps - e.g., tonight ice is possible before the change to rain.  And (2) the 540 line is no longer the line - I usually start looking for the 534 line to determine a decent shot at snow.

So below is our current situation with signals.  Source: FM Ensembles inc.  :)

The three storms (or potential for #3) are highlighted when they're modeled to happen or when I think the best chance for a possibility.

Bottom line:  great pic, one month too late.

ODDS:

Storm 1:    Ridge/trough not great.  Block in place.  Cold air not there for the duration.  Result as expected.  Even a rain to snow mess in Boston.  No change in odds.

Storm 2:    Signals look more supportive, but no go with track and temps.  No change in odds at this time.

Potential 3:   Not looking good.  Potentially too little too late on the sigs.  Mick needs to cut the eye for the potential to even see any way forward.  Odds reduced and trending down.

Next odds update will be Sunday/Monday.  I'm still watching late next week as these first two storms are part of the final answer and the signals during that period start to relax - but right now it looks like too much to coordinate in too little a timeframe at the wrong time of the year. 

Play ball!

Cheers,

FM