Hi all - quick post on my updated odds based on my post the other day.
One quick note - as discussed before - the great setup doesn't guarantee anything - and it looks to be headed that way.
Also - at this time of year, when looking at models: (1) more important to look at all levels to determine temps - e.g., tonight ice is possible before the change to rain. And (2) the 540 line is no longer the line - I usually start looking for the 534 line to determine a decent shot at snow.
So below is our current situation with signals. Source: FM Ensembles inc. :)
The three storms (or potential for #3) are highlighted when they're modeled to happen or when I think the best chance for a possibility.
Bottom line: great pic, one month too late.
Storm 1: Ridge/trough not great. Block in place. Cold air not there for the duration. Result as expected. Even a rain to snow mess in Boston. No change in odds.
Storm 2: Signals look more supportive, but no go with track and temps. No change in odds at this time.
Potential 3: Not looking good. Potentially too little too late on the sigs. Mick needs to cut the eye for the potential to even see any way forward. Odds reduced and trending down.
Next odds update will be Sunday/Monday. I'm still watching late next week as these first two storms are part of the final answer and the signals during that period start to relax - but right now it looks like too much to coordinate in too little a timeframe at the wrong time of the year.
Yeah Kevin, it is what it is. All the energy this winter went everywhere else! The old athlete in me is trained to never quit until the clock says 0:00. Until then, play your rear off, even when you lose by 1 or 100. So I keep tracking and learning so in the end it is worth it. The snow will return.
You can tell the transition has begun from Winter to Spring. This site would normally be buzzing with all the potential storm shots over the next week or so. But a combination of winter fatigue and being late in the season, has resigned most on here that these events are becoming more likely no snow makers. Hopefully in a few short weeks it will warm up and Spring will commence. At that point, the only thing you will hear on this site are the crickets as all the snow lovers disappear until next Thanksgiving!!!
By the way tonight's temp profiles and the dew points would support frozen precipitation for many portions of the area as new precipitation gets under way something to keep an eye on if your looking for a surprise..
Currently 32 in both DC and Baltimore and 34 here in Media all locations have dew points in the middle and upper 20's which would support sleet and some snow for a time especially north and west of the Pa Turnpike towards the Lehigh Valley and Poconos when and if the precip gets that north and it should in time.
Hey Hey,,, Great Stuff.... you hit the nail on the head yes indeed look for the 534 line at this point... solar radiation at the surface increases dramatically after say Feb. 25th!! Let's be honest it is rising rapidly now as the days get longer both in the morning and the evening.
The solar radiation heats the land then the atmosphere and the surface temps stay relatively warm which in many cases is the difference between rain and snow with most times temps in the 40's by day and the lower to middle 30's at night exactly for the most part what you will be seeing this week.
Love your pictures of Rocky there because the way Rocky looks in those snap shot reminds me of our winter snows this year!