Well, as we creep closer and closer to this event on Tuesday there have been a few things I wanted to point out with the current track of this system.
The current track of the system seems like the low pressure that will develope off the upper low points out over central-eastern pa. While this is not an ideal path for snow lovers in the DE valley.
The current path this storm is taking on the models will have a very warm southeasterly flow around it bringing the 540 line way up in New York State and possibly northern vemont- Southern Canada. Now it is like this because the low needs to phase sooner and needs to get going further south of the area. If it gets together in maryland like it is right now it won't have enough time to drag in the cold air because of the secondary upper low being over the lakes bringing all the moist flow into our area.
As you can basically see if you are looking at the models they have all been fairly aligned to this conclusion but one thing I have been wondering about is why it seems to be discounting the cold are from the high pressures you would think there would be more damming taking place. The blocking is so intense that this low dies off in New England after sitting there for a day or two on the models.
My thoughts at this point are that there is still a chance we see snow out of this overall it is 5+ days out. The high pressures will have to be watched as they cause major blocking which will make the storm basically stall in New England which could affect the upcoming march event.
So all in all we could still see something from this right now it is unlikely but as we creep closer the models will get a better handle on this. I just don't see this going inland with everything in place I just don't see it. But who knows the models could be seeing something that I am not. But atm things can go either way
Things are prone to change since it is still a decent ways out .
Correct me if I'm wrong post comments and thoughts below!!
Overall a good analysis, I wrote up the reason the air will not dam like it would've a while back, the ggem just the other day brought that low away from new england and into the 50/50 position allowing the next system to be everything we are hoping for, I'm going to re-analyze the models now and see what the new guidance is.