I will have a full blog later this evening for now here are my thoughts about snow the rest of the way and I will stick to them at this point.
I think we will have a problem getting snow around here while the NAO is there to block the reality of the beast is slow moving storms moving up from the southwest that can have too much time to tap warmer air from the south and of the Atlantic .... along with much much more added solar radiation by day this pattern screams snow far inland and northwest and rain and temps in the 40's along the coastal plain which for the most part includes Philadelphia south and east. Lehigh Valley Poconos may need to watch more...
Now for the Philadelphia 5 county area it is a coin flip but odds favor rain in this type of pattern with waning winter cold becoming stale and the solar bug getting the best of warming things up too much at the surface.
Once again I will have a full blog this evening describing what is happening with maps but the bottom line today is that we just cannot catch a break to deliever THE BIG SNOWSTORM we are all looking and waiting for!
MarkA. Do not ever refer to me as a troll. I have been here since day one of Robs days at Fox. I contributed over those years 10 times as much as you. I feel comfortable telling you to get lost. I suggest you check my other posts to see that I normally include relevant support. Not that I owe you an explanation.
yeah snowfall - the 0Z runs last night were interesting. I'm looking closely at the H5 and 300 maps. The ridge/trough has to adjust to the right position with enough blocking in place, and the cold air needs to be strong. Time of year is so huge right now.
Go back and run through the the H5 maps of the 0Z GFS. Big change from it's 12Z run yesterday.
With the signals heading to strong values, i think our best chance is when the PNA and NAO start to head back. See my ODDS post - graphic there explains it.
Yo Marky-Mark. Love it Bro! Odds went out prior to any 0Z runs. They didn't write off potential #3, just were more realistic to look at relaxing signals and the need for cold air. The odds are OK, but not great. That could change.
Also, I'm not so sure it's 3/1 exactly. So I'm looking a little broader through next weekend.
Hold on , all this nonsense about "no hope" is false. Your thoughts are influenced by the gfs runs meanwhile the EURO shows it 7 days out. Gfs was ass with the Nemo blizzard. It doesn't handle those storms in the pac especially 7 days out.
Nope I've just took a Lil break. Euro 12z shifted west from 0z. Let's see what it will say in an hour. Plenty of hope for 3/1 storm. Joe bastardi thinks mid Atlantic will get its fair share of snow. That NAO is not too strong at least on the ncep site. WINTERS NOT OVER