Hello again. I expect a major storm to form along or off the east coast within the medium range. As I wrote about 4 weeks ago the pattern is going into a negative nao (west based at that), a positive pna and a neutral mjo, (I didn't mention the pna). The negative nao and associated blocking are about to set up just about everything a snow lover could want, but there are issues. Climatology and sun angle along with average high temperature increasing daily are enough to overcome but there are even more issues, it's very simple to understand that without cold air it will not snow. The cold air source is a problem, had we seen a storm these past few days it would not have been a big problem, but by next week and beyond there will not be a source of new, dry, cold air in which the temperature-dew point ratio is such the evaporative cooling could make a real differance and will be difficult to erode and will dam easily. This airmass will give none of that assitance. Many of us are quite certain that a major storm will form and when it does it will cause the pattern to break toward a spring-like pattern. Whether that storm is along the east coast or off of it is something that while we don't know now, I will predict as details start to come in. It should be kept in mind that major snowstorms in the Delaware Valley in March are few and far between, making it inherently unlikely, that said, I believe we have a better than 60 percent chance of a hecs somewhere between D.C and Maine. I say that because the storm will form, and with all that blocking, somone is going to be affected. I've gone over the problems but we can also look at the good things, climatology and sun-angle wise we are equivalent to late October, and easten PA had a snowstorm at that time of year in 2011, so it can and does happen. Also a powerful storm can dynamically cool the air, I've seen Atlanta go from the low 50's to snow in the low 30's in hours just from a dynamic system passing overhead. The ggem and ecmwf have been leaning toward a storm for a couple of days now, the ecmwf is the model I'm really watching as it is great at seeing something way ahead, that none of the other models see, (it sometimes looses it only to regain it later but that's why I'm watching it now). I would say keep an eye on the ecmwf, the cmc and the gfs, (I can't believe I'm mentioning the cmc but I can't bring myself to ignore that it now has 4dvar), if the gfs starts to lean toward a storm and the others still are I'll predict something a long way out (the medium/long range is sort of my "wheel house" so to speak). I would like to write something much more detailed, but the details just aren't there yet, soon enough though we'll know, one way or the other.
I'm definitely thinking they honor Earl this year. Black arm band sounds about right. Weaver did know how to win and was a great manager in Baltimore!
I was pretty young during the Weaver days and remember watching him with my Dad. Cal Ripken was my idol growing up. Lets just say I have Ripken stuff everywhere to remind me never to take a sick day. When I feel like taking a break I always ask myself what would Ripken do!
I would think the O's will honor Earl Weaver with a black arm band this season?
When I was a kid Earl weaver use to play the weather and rain in his favor, stalling arguing, the game would get delayed if they were losing and it was 4th inning or less he would stall during rain storms to not let it be a official game, he was classic, as a Yankee fan back then I loved watching him, he knew how to win.
Rick Dempsey would do Casey at the bat on the soaking wet tarp during delays..........it always rains in Baltimore...
Yanks it's definitely a sign that Spring is real close. I'm thinking about 20 days til I hear the frogs chirping in the woods when the sun goes down. That's when it hits me what time of the year it is. It's funny as a kid I dreaded spring but as I get older I love it! Still love winter and snow but when it's time for warm weather I say bring it on!
Also hoping the Orioles do well again. First time last year in 15 years I had something to follow with baseball! Lets go O's!!!!
I agree with you on that John. New England will probably get hammered again but I'm thinking further north towards the ski resorts. I'm ready for servere weather season as well as that means warmth is back!
Brian, I think you may be right, but there are indications that the blocking will hang on and give us a cool rainy start which is useless, it's better from a forecasting standpoint just to go into severe weather season, that said, I still think someone is not going to get out of this unscathed, it just looks more and more like it will be the new england end of my outook. But there's still a little time.
Lee I'm pretty sure we are done for the year with snow. Sorry gang but I'm really hoping at this point to go into Spring. Stale old air leftover from winter is all that is left. It's barely cold enough in New England this weekend for snow.
We've had our last arctic air of the year and it will gradually warm each and every week now. Robins are out and I smelled skunks while out driving today. Tell tale signs of spring to me! Animals know alot more about weather than these computer models.
Lets hope for a nice March since I personally feel that snow is out of the question at this point. It's over Johnny!!!
Thats was not directed at you John, just me being funny! lol
I'm not too worried about a run that does not have the 3 D picture of the atmosphere from the weather balloon data initialized in it. As far as March 1, I think we have to look a little father out then that because of the occluded upper low.
Lets hope we are not stuck until early April. That would mean cold and rainy which in my opinion is horrible. Hope a storm blows up crashes the PNA and the NAO goes extremely positive. Blow torch baby. I want last March back. Trees had flowers shortly after the 10th down here. It was amazing.