As we start zooming in on the first event this weekend, I just wanted to throw out a few quick thoughts on the big picture (next 10 days) based on the 12Z runs today.
1. Signals are setting up. PNA headed positive, NAO and AO both negative. I think it takes time for everything to get in place, take shape and realize whatever potential is available.
2. Energy continues to flow through the pattern and the STJ is becoming more of a player - which is normal this time of year.
3. The next two events are impact players in setting things up, and the third event remains the best potential for us. Look at model run comparisons, within the model and between the models. Look at the big pattern and trends. Things keep shifting towards a more supportive latter part of next week IMO.
BIG Picture update: Below is a comparison of the Canadian (top) and Euro (bottom) at hrs 228 and 240 respectively. I don't worry about the 12 hours difference this far out. Note the highlighted areas in the NE and the GOM. Also note the deep trough heading to the GOM. Looking more and more like miller time, isn't it?
Now look at the Canadian at hr 240. Since it was a bit faster in setup, it gives one more frame to look at.
Long way to go. Potential still exists. Next two events could bring some fun, but more for NYC-NE - more importantly IMO they help set things up for next weekend. And I believe when signals set in, it takes time to get placement right and optimal ripeness. So for now - I continue the watch.
All in all - whether we get a hit or not, it does look like March comes in like a LION.