I have gone back to 1969 for March winters that produced cold and snow in our region.. I have referenced ACY and PHL history data.
Since the Teleconnections are signaling a favorable alignment expected to climax in early March, I went back and found some years that actually did produce snow and cold periods, I will focus on the NAO/AO.
Had a very negative NAO/AO combination and did produce snow events in the first week of March, the month overall was below normal otherwise a bland month.
Coming off a very mild February adn a cold January, March had a few bouts of colder air which produced a wet snow event in the second week.
The Nao was positive, AO was strongly negative....
Was a very cold event filled winter, plenty of snow which spilled into early March with very cold air and snow events during the first week and a half.
The winter had very negative Nao/AO readings into the beginning of March, after this first week the indices went strongly positive and winter abruptly ended...
The month did have cold air with a snow event early in the first week, the month was wet and average, not much wintriness but the tele's were negative.....
The AO was very negative with wide negative fluctuations as the NAO was neutral-negative with a tendency of more negative readings.
Was very cold the first half with a decent snow event mixed in with rainy periods, overall well below normal period.
Nao was neutral-positive, while the AO was extremely negative, the lowest for the entire winter was during this period..
Not a stellar winter at all, many rain and wind events with crazy temp fluctuations, the December 1992 event was the first of 2 bookends which mated up with the main event on March 13, 1993 the highlight of this winter.
The Nao was briefly negative prior to this event then crossed neutral during the onset of the system. The storm track curled inland as it gained our regions lattitude. The AO was near neutral then spiked strongly positive after this system.
Overall the month was sandwiched around this period with mild temps. Up to this date of March 13th we had below normal highs while after this event it remained below normal, snow pack was evident with an ice layer topping due to the Fr. rain and sleet, a thick ice layer formed and preserved the snow pack under the layer which was tundra-like tightly to the ground the snow/ice pack kept the region colder.
This was the coldest March I think I lived, it was persistently below normal as we were stuck under a persistent Northeast trough. This was a real long winter that arrived during Fall and extended into April, the most snow I witnessed since the 70's.
The first 2 weeks in March produced periods of snow with very cold windchills at times, as was common thru this entire winter were the brief warm ups that were imbedded in the persistent cold air, March was no different. I recall near the second weekend of March we had a snow event that was followed with the coldest wind I ever lived/witnessed in March.
The Nao was either side of neutral the entire month, while the AO was persistently negative, at times incredibly negative.
I bring us to the last notable March event, a winter storm we all witnessed down here, not so much N and W. This perhaps was a sign of what was to come for Dec-Feb 2009/10..
This storm came after horrible results from the previous months, we did have cold air and a few small events but this was the culmination of this winters season. March came in like a white lion as the region saw up to 12" in areas during the March 1-2 period. The snow was dry and remained on the ground a couple days before melting. Record cold lows were reported at AC airport the following 2 days.
The Nao/Ao were both modestly positive, a strong cold high and a 50/50 low resulted in a perfect track which produced this event.
I compiled this data and tried to relate the indices with the March results, the majority of the winters mentioned prove a key component was the strong negative AO tendency. To get cold high temperatures in March is a good fete considering the sun angle and longer days.
The nao was variable but not a key player in strength at all times. I also do not have all the surface plots during the periods researched, I was going by memory with some recent March's as I recalled actual personal accounts..
Hope this was a enlightening read and we can relate the upcoming tele indices with snow and cold for this March 2013.........
78, I don't remember it the way he says. I just returned from Jamaica and watched him on the news. He was making it seems like it was going to be the end of the world. He definitely overhyped the storm. Everyone was at the stores that day in a complete panick. It was ridiculous...
If you go back over 40 years March has not been real wintry overall, yes, windy and raw but frozen precip is limited to a small segment around here.
Typically the elevations, N and W are the areas to see the frozen precip add up, climatology is key in March, the only thing superceding Climatology would be a aberration High pressure that is chart breaking ..