Hello, this winter storm Q that's heading towards the Midwest, bullseye looks like Salina, KS.
As this low spins towards a drier high pressured air mass, it will slow down and weaken. It turns out that another wave of low pressure will start spinning around New Orleans, LA and head northeast potentially becoming a full blown nor'easter.
This situation is still days away but the potential for at least 3 inches of snow or more for Philly, NYC and Boston looks like the bullseye again. The high pressure over the Halifax, Canada will be much weaker compared to midweek therefore, it won't draw the very cold air we would want for this storm to start as snow and remain all snow. The good news is the heaviest precipitation that should hit the ground will begin after 5PM ET on Saturday Feb 23rd 2013, and not be (virga-precipitation that falls from the clouds, but it is to dry at the surface to hit the ground). It looks like the nao may plunge into the negative area, resulting this area of low pressure to ride up the coast.
This is all good news. The highs should be in the upper 30s to low 40s on Saturday but the only bad thing is we don't have a solid arctic air high pressure, but I do believe it will be colder than last Wednesdays storm where the highs got up to upper 40s and the storm made its own cold air for it to drop a few inches where it was hit by heavy precipitation. I do believe this storm will be much stronger and also the fact that it will ride up the coast, it will certainly not be moisture starved.
I am not going to give any snow accumulations forecast but the potential is there for a major snowstorm for at least 3 inches of snow if everything pans out. Look for the storm to move out Sunday morning. I will be keeping a close eye on this storm as it develops and I will keep you posted.
I'm goin to bed. Only reason I stayed up is cause I'm on west coasts so its not that bad lol. I really like the potential if we can get a potent high pressure in S Canada to really give us mostly snow. Otherwise it might be a 3-6 event for us cause of the changeover. Also could be better Like we said with a stronger storm, but it has too be perfect track, Like euro showd tonightt
Ok, that is very very very good. The one thing that really concerns me is how north of 540 line is at 96 hrs. Howeve that is before precip and it will come south quickly as storm intensifies and moves nne. All models have been trending colder so hopefully that continues, does euro have a good handle on blocking and a high in Canada to bring in cold air?
Yes stronger always means cooler. It is trending cooler and euro just showed a perfect track for us. It's not really warm the highs will be in the upper 30s to low 40s before the precipitation moves in. The light precip will be virga causing evaporation cooling which may drop temps down to 33-35 from there on this storm gets stronger and stronger so there won't be any warm air coming in. It'll be a setup somewhat to the October 2011 nor'easter except February has way stronger upper winds causing this storm to move out quicker but it may trend much stronger than modeled at this point.
How can u say that when itis simply way too warm to snow at the beginnings with the 540 line modeled to be south of Albany? I mean I do think it will be colder than currently modeled by definetly not all snow Especially for Philly, me and u toNY have a much better chance. We need a perfect track, no too far inland or its ALLrain or not too Far East and we don't get too much precip.
There's something missing. The Midwest storm should wind down a lot quicker. By the time it hits Iowa from my thinking. Because of the Omega high. My thinking at this point is that there really won't be much warm air coming to the northeast from the Q storm because as that system weakens, the low pressure off the North Carolina should strengthen dramatically resulting its own cold air.