Have not seen a set up like this in a few years. We have an NAO tanking, a PNA surging positive and a somewhat favorable AO. The GFs and EURO are showing HUGE potential after the weekend through about March5th. 2 time periods of note are Feb. 26-28th and March1-3rd. The March 1-3rd idea is showing its face big time on the GFS and the EURo today transfered to a 984 off Jersey in that time period. I really dislike this weekend for anyone south of NYC, however we have 2 great opportunities before I think winter ends as we head intot eh 2nd week of March.
78 - haha. Yes, for the winter until now. Mixed teles, fast movement, nothing ever really got set up - so all potential was a crap shoot on timing. This is different. This ALIGNED TELE pattern getting set up is on PEDs via the STJ. Still - nothing is guaranteed, but finally timing gets some help.
Phil - I get the Frustration. But this is so different than what we've seen in almost 2 years. Still nothing is guaranteed and no one has said such. The potential over the last couple of weeks was real. Just didn't pan out for us, back to the mixed signs. The potential here is real and the sigs finally look to work together. We'll see.
gravy - don't get me wrong. i love tracking storms and watching things unfold. but these models have driven me insane. it feels like all winter we've been doing the same thing - watching a potential storm develop 5 days out, watching the models trend in our direction leading up to the storm, nowcasting starting off on a high note (i can't tell you how many times we read mike's nowcasting blogs where the radar at the start of a storm was more impressive than the models forecasted), and then all of a sudden everything comes crashing down and we get burned. all winter it's been these exact same steps. so it's hard to keep getting my hopes up and putting my faith in these models when the end result just seems inevitable no matter what the models show. the way things are going for us, we could have a blizzard heading right up the coast and then stopping at the mason dixon line and heading back to the gulf. it's almost as if the models are purposely getting our hopes up feeding us bad forecasts and then laughing at us the day after a "storm".
As with all homeruns along the fouline or near the wall tops of the outfield a review gets launched, which was requested by the defending team in the field ( Trends ) then, upon further review, instant replay would reverse the homerun and call Fan Interference on this winter.
After all that, the ruling declares we would get awarded 2nd base instead of the homer, then mother nature appeals to the 1st base umpire that we missed first base on the way to second, the appeal results in the ump calling we missed the bag, out of the base lines, game over.....
I truly do see the pattern, all that was just a added baseball scenario continuation based on this winters reputation.
One would think with all the Tele's working together in the medium/ long range that we are quickly going to realize the results are already setting up in our near term.
Future high temperatures are being lowered towards the weekend, the mention of snow is becoming a issue in the precip type. All of the sudden omega blocks , huge west coast storms rumors of arctic support, we are gonna see it all develop this week, the models are nowcasting this transition and we are going to watch it happen live............
Love the all caps blog posts! Bringing it back old school!
Phil- I get the frustration but the anticipation, hope and tracking is MUCH more fun than the actaul storm... IMO if you are sick of the potential talk and want that "surprise" storm, just watch he local news. They rarely discuss anything past 5 days, nor the potential. In this case you'll never be let down. Axiom of models: they always change for better or worse depending on your perspective. Axiom of this site: we never shut up about the potential. Just wait for Wenner's 384 GFS Fantasy storm posts...
mike - i occasionally post on here. but i usually just read and keep to myself. i've heard the word "potential" beaten to death on this website this winter, especially over the past 2 weeks. ever since the 2nd week of february, the pattern was supposedly becoming a favorable one for us - finally. but in the end, something always seems to break down. these models have become completely unreliable. every one of them is consumed with flaws. so now we got the models showing us yet another potential. and we're supposed to get excited. i'd love to get my hopes up. but i've done that 10 times this year, 4 times in the past 2 weeks. and the result is always the same. so maybe today the potential exists for us, yet again, for storms in the next 2 weeks. but it seems like it's just a matter of time before something goes wrong.
mike - can you honestly put any faith in any model after what we've gone through this winter? i'd rather the models just keep showing us missing storms than showing us with potential that never plays out. we're getting our hopes up because the models are getting them up. can you really put any faith that this time the models have it right? my post has no merit with you? the models have no merit with me.
Wenner I couldn't agree more. Next week thru the first two weeeks of March have the potential to deliver in a big way. Phil- I don't know you and have rarely if ever seen you post here but what you posted is pure bittercasting and holds zero merit with me and most likely the rest on here.
Phil, there was a very significant storm last weekend as the models predicted. There was basically a 965mb low off the coast. It just formed too late for our area. The models read that exceptionally well in the long range. It just all came down to timing as to whether we benefited. The potential was there like it is there this time except now we have the blocking to slow it down.
I think two significant storms will almost certainly occur before, say, March 5. The issue with both will be cold air, which becomes harder and harder to find this time of year. Having bought my portable greenhouse today, all I ask is that it hold off until I set it up :-).
no offense jonathan, but we heard this same thing right before valentine's day. there was "supposedly" storm after storm after storm lined up through the rest of february and that there was "HUGE POTENTIAL" on at least one occasion. these models are completely useless. they're completely useless 7 days out all the way up until the "storm" is on top of us. no model is worth anything these days. when you say the factors that favor snow are coming together, there's a very likely chance something will go wrong and the safe bet is to say we'll end up disappointed. i think it's safe to assume that this winter is not going to give us any happy ending. we keep holding onto hope that we'll still get that one big storm before winter's over. but we're just driving ourselves insane holding onto this hope. i can't get excited over any model run at this point. at some point, each of us is going to have to accept the fact that winter is over and look forward to next year being completely different than the past 2 winters. i've reached that point and i think after the PD storm fell through, most of us have.
Yo Wenner! I already alluded to this in a morning post. Wake up man! Get with the program! hahahaha..
I like end of next week the best. I think it will take about a week for the pattern to settle in while getting juiced. First time in a while where this pattern will actually hang out for a little bit.
Starts this weekend - which will be strike 1. Strike 2 - is mid-next week - old #1 heat, foul tip, almost got it, but now has timing down. Down 0-2, 2 outs in the 9th, wining run at the plate, here's the pitch, swing..... - "It's outttttaaaa here!!" SECS? MECS? HECS? SHECS? SKHECS?
To be honest here, the pattern looks very good for us. And I actually do like the setup for the 26-8th or so of March. I will admit I might be wrong here, I could see us getting a decent storm, lets just see if this thing delivers.
Yeah, Bob we need that primary not to cut up too far. The West Based -NAO should handle that. It's by no means a given that this will pan out but for once a storm could form far enough to our south to blow up and create its own cold air before it gets here instead of as it zooms by us.
Of course as I've been on this site for two months... loving the excitement of each possible storm opportuntiy hoping that we'll see some of the white stuff.. and just as soon as thigns look promising for early March, I'm heading to Amsterdam for a week on business. While that sounds really cool to most, I'll be pissed if I miss a big coastal storm and wish I was home.
So, I'm holding onto hope that the next week or so has somethign for me... living in northern VA has been rough this winter to say the least!