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Snowstorm to begin the Wild Month of March? Hmmmm...FANTASY LAND
Winter "Snow" will take a break for a while (until possibly the beginning of March).
*BEFORE I GO ON, KNOW THAT I AM NOT FORECASTING THIS STORM AS A DEFINITE HIT, JUST AN IDEA OF WHAT IS OUT THERE*
>>Image below shows what we may be dealing with come the first couples days of March. WAY TOO FAR TO REALLY TALK ABOUT, BUT IT IS THERE AND I'M TALKING ABOUT IT.
By this time-frame (February 29th-March 5th) we will have established (hopefully)...
1) +PNA (ridging on the west coast leading to a trough in the east).
2) -NAO (Blocking near Greenland; forces storms to come North into the Northeast).
3) Neutral to slightly Negative AO (Cold source).
More Negative=More Cold (but you do NOT want it too negative or you will see suppression of our storm(s) due to too much of a cold push). We just need enough to work with so I do see this being favorable as well.
>>All of these teleconnections together USUALLY mean a Snowy time is possible here in the East. BUT we have also seen this set up and NOTHING develops...SO we have to watch. Winter is not over just yet.
--The MJO however is not in too much of a favorable stage at this time. It could be worse, but it could be much better.
IN THE MEANTIME....
We will have days following Cold Frontal Passages (like Wed/Thurs) that will feel just like winter, but no snow to accompany the cold.
It will be mostly above average the rest of the way through February, with days below average of course, BUT warm days will outnumber the cold.
*BEFORE I GO ON, KNOW THAT I AM NOT FORECASTING THIS STORM AS A DEFINITE HIT, JUST AN IDEA OF WHAT IS OUT THERE*
>>Image below shows what we may be dealing with come the first couples days of March. WAY TOO FAR TO REALLY TALK ABOUT, BUT IT IS THERE AND I'M TALKING ABOUT IT.
By this time-frame (February 29th-March 5th) we will have established (hopefully)...
1) +PNA (ridging on the west coast leading to a trough in the east).
2) -NAO (Blocking near Greenland; forces storms to come North into the Northeast).
3) Neutral to slightly Negative AO (Cold source).
More Negative=More Cold (but you do NOT want it too negative or you will see suppression of our storm(s) due to too much of a cold push). We just need enough to work with so I do see this being favorable as well.
>>All of these teleconnections together USUALLY mean a Snowy time is possible here in the East. BUT we have also seen this set up and NOTHING develops...SO we have to watch. Winter is not over just yet.
--The MJO however is not in too much of a favorable stage at this time. It could be worse, but it could be much better.
IN THE MEANTIME....
We will have days following Cold Frontal Passages (like Wed/Thurs) that will feel just like winter, but no snow to accompany the cold.
It will be mostly above average the rest of the way through February, with days below average of course, BUT warm days will outnumber the cold.
Blog started by 98yanks , on 94 days ago
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JMT yeah it is nice to see! I am not worried about placement this far out. Just liking that it is there and the cold is not far behind already on this run. PLUS the amount of moisture this far out is something to take note of.
Treading water for the next week plus until then...
The low that close to the coastline with a pressure 0f 988 mb would have mixxing issues.
The nao would be negative and probably rising towards neutral so this should be centered a little more east off the coastline..
The gfs ensembles have been portraying a big system around this time period so we are in a good spot as we flip the calendar.
A Culminating Large Scale seasonal event is the likely outcome to this dismal winter.. Then we seguay into March fluctuations with horrible wind events into late April......
The low that close to the coastline with a pressure 0f 988 mb would have mixxing issues.
The nao would be negative and probably rising towards neutral so this should be centered a little more east off the coastline..
The gfs ensembles have been portraying a big system around this time period so we are in a good spot as we flip the calendar.
A Culminating Large Scale seasonal event is the likely outcome to this dismal winter.. Then we seguay into March fluctuations with horrible wind events into late April......
Even if it doesn't happen, that image is nice to look at if you like snow. I prefer warm weather, but a raging nor'easter is a welcome exception. Let's hope this is the one.
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