Hello again guys, the good news is, nothing regarding my outlook has changed and it hasn't for some time actually. I have been looking over the the guidance models and have found a few things that should be discussed. I payed special attention to the three best models, the ecmwf, the cmc (now that it has 4dvar I'm giving it more weight in my forecasts) and the gfs, I then analyzed the other models, looked over the pattern in general and came to a conclusion. I'll begin with the ecmwf, (unfortunatly they are a private organization and charge vast amounts of money to look over the things we'd like to see, but that doesn't mean there isn't a lot of forecast information on the official site, there is), during the period in question, the ecmwf shows a few interesting things and has been for a while. The first thing that I noticed was that at 850 millibars, it really digs that disturbance into the mid-west, so much so that it begins to negatively tilt. The gfs during the same period shows cape oriented nnw to sse over the gulf stream, right at the time the energy transfer should take place. The Canadian is on this too, but they are all missing the energy tranfer as the mid-west system runs into the high. Also, the hieghts look good for the time period in question. The great thing for a storm is that for once, the telleconnections will be great. I am not buying into any medium/long range forecasts of the mjo, it's propagation is highly unpredictable past 5-8 days. There are "flashes" of energy transfer, such as the mid-west low orienting it's lowest pressure wnw to ese toward the North Carolina coast. This never goes all the way to a complete transfer to the coast, I believe the models are all basically right, up to the point where the transfer should take place, from that point forward, I believe that they are all wrong, this will change though and I think they will come around to a solution that will make a lot of you guys happy, myself included. By the way, a fun conversation is the first week of March, there is great indication of a miller A during that time frame, it's a long way off so we'll take things one step at a time, but I believe that the "blow torch" forecasts for March are wrong (the start of the month anyway), just like they were for February, (some were saying that). Ladies and gentleman, fear not, good things are coming. (Most likely hahaha)
Lastly; don't write off the 24th system, it does drag warm air up, but it will likely intensify over the gulf stream manufactured baroclinic zone, and the high to our northwest will help, all this considered and taking into account that there will likely be steep lapse rates in the lower troposphere at the time it is coming up the coast is cause to waych it and watch it closely.
Thank you again for taking time out of your life to read this.
Some people need to be kicked off this site. This is not a chat room for immature young idiots, its a weather site where we talk about weather, so go back to your chat rooms and bother people there. No one here needs to hear this crap. None of you know how to forecast, if you did you would do it for a living.
Your area really did get shafted though Marcus. But this winter and last are nothing alike, last winter we saw temperatures in the low 60's in January, the upper 60's in February and the low 80's in March, it was consistently warm and snowless, (I recorded 3.5" in one event and that was it for the whole season).
I love this part: "I haven't been wrong yet this year, and until I am, people should at least respect what I have to say." I have trouble respecting abrasive people, that throw out self serving comments like candy. I don't know, maybe he is a boy genius. But abrasive? Yes. "I have every right to say what I am saying on here, so I could care less whether you like it or not." Nice. The high road. Sure thing Tim.
Marcus, remember you said that in the not too distant future. (By the way, I live just outside Philadelphia in central Montgomery county and we have almost exactly an average winter in terms of total snowfall accumulation)
Lee, as of now, it appears as though it will be all rain, however, the gfs is trending toward a changeover. (It looks like it already has a change to snow but one must remember that what is shown on the frame is accumulated precip over time and in the frames where the gfs has the freezing line past us but precip over us, that was accumulated precip that ended before the temperatures crashed)