Needed a break after last week. What a waste of potential, and it did come close, but no surprise to me, too many things just not completely right to make it happen. Huge storm in the end - man the winds were HOWLING last night!
Anyway - I'm looking forward to Spring as the last 4 weeks I've dealt with my two girls having strep and then flu. We're exhausted and with this frustrating winter - yeah, I'm looking forward to nice warm days.
BUT!!! I'm ok with a few more weeks of potential!! HAHAHAHAHA! Yes - I need serious help.
And so -here's what I see this week - macro level.
So the pic shows the pieces of energy available, support of the STJ for the southern L, west ridge, transfer of energy to the L forming off the east coast, blocking to the north, and what we've seen all year - a fast, W-E movement. Right now we're on the warm side of the solution for next weekend. And at least with the 12Z GFS today it forms, can't phase fast enough and exits stage right really fast!
Models seem to be picking up better on the block, L coming from the south, etc., so a long way to go. HOW MANY TIMES HAVE WE SAID THAT THIS YEAR! (and yes - we have to let the next system go through as it tries to become a 50/50 low to enhance the block)
The things that bother me are the negative PNA (west ridge) promoting MA being on the warm side, and once again the timing (i.e., transfer, phasing, etc..) The blocking is trying to slow things down, so that may help get the energy to slow down and allow the ridge to slide east more. But the overall fast W-E movement has been there all year. Think about it - have we seen things get set up and stay in place? No! Very short time-frames for the setups, which means timing is even more important for things to pop right IMO.
So let's see how the week plays out. Not overly excited for next weeked - but may be that's a good thing! :)
So based off 0Zs last night the signals look like they may actually get coordinated for us. Energy seems to be available as the STJ stays active and juicy. I think the pattern remains quick, so hopefully timing gets better, or maybe the pattern slows a bit with the coordinated signals - who knows??
Bottom line - Last week in Feb through 1st two weeks in March look like winter wants to tease us with potential. Maybe a hit, maybe more frustration. I think this winter has been the hardest in a while for longer term outlooks as the pace has been so fast, it's hard to keep up - ala the model madness this entire winter.
I'm doing a write-up right now, but am here to say that I have 2 blogs that speak of this, (medium range/post 23td). I firmly believe that we are looking good for an event within the time frame outlined in my new blog (the last week of February and first week of March). Climatology and sun angle will be in play for sure, but I believe that we'll still get what we've been waiting for, the blog that I am writing right now outlines the reasons that I believe this. We'll see.
I have punted this winter completely! I personally feel the winter is cooked from roughly the mason dixon line on south basically. I give any 4"+ snow potential a less than 15% chance of occurring from this point going forward. The pac has been a mess all winter and by the time it may turn favorable I think that climo will rule and we will be wet from any storms going forward while New England continues to be white. This winter has been brutal b/c we have been oh so close on a number of occasions this year. I will gladly take a surprise if Mother Nature has one in for us, but I greatly doubt it at this point.