Hello ladies and gentleman, this is an update to my last blog, snow lovers will be happy.
The NAO is crashing and the AO is quite negative as well. The write-up that I did in my last
blog mentioned the possibility of a significant event on or around the 27th. The reasons
that this could well be the case were outlined within that blog, things have not changed
regarding the time-frame or reasoning. Some of the things that will be mentioned within
this blog were mentioned in the last, however, there will be additional information within
this blog that will assist those new to the love of meteorology in understanding why this
may be the case. The NAO falling sharply negative and the AO itself being quite negative
are great signs, also, the PNA will be positive and the stj active. This, simply put means
that the teleconnections are working well for a major event, (it should be known, as most
of you probably already know, that everything teleconnection-wise could be perfect and we
could see nothing, I myself have seen it happen many, many times. That said, I do not
believe that will be the case this time and I will outline the reasons why). We are fairly far
away from the 27th, but not that far, all things considered. So, that said, I will now explain
in some detail why there is hope and a lot of it. The NAO falling sharply and the AO also
being in
a negative state around the time in question means several things. Number one, the
NAO and AO will be very, very low around the time in question, but they will both be
sharply rising, (according to the current forecast), right at the time the system in question
is to be affecting our area. As many of you know, though some do not, the best time to
look for a major snowstorm on the east coast is not when the NAO/AO bottoms out, but
when it starts to quickly rise and that is precisely what is forecast to occur. If you check
out the NAO/AO ensembles for that time frame, you will see that what is forecast to occur
(which by the way is the "near best case scenario" for the Delaware Valley/mid-Atlantic
and northeast, is what is forecast to occur and has consistently been forecast to for some
time. Also, the polar vortex looks to be in good position. There will also be a wealth of cold
air, over a large area, including ours, including much of the lower and mid troposphere. I
will write another blog regarding this, most likely, tomorrow, Thank you for the kind
attention you've given by taking time out of your lives to read this.