Was just looking at the NOGAPS model and was looking at the placement of the low tomorrow night and it looks like this model is pulling the low west just off the coast enough as it strengthens and moves north.
Rob or Mike can you confirm that or am I reading this wrong on the model.
Yes that is what i noticed with the trough on the nam run, the 500 mb lines were not as far east and they were tighter which can be a good indication of slowing and lagging westward, the moisture also did not seem well represented.
I am glad you mentioned that about the front not being quick moving, that line looks real juiced up, hope it performs for you !
One thing I do notice with this first piece is how it is having a tough time moving east. Zoom in on radar down near Baltimore and watch how precip moves nne but barely pushes east at all. Could the front set up closer to the coast and help tomorrow?? Bernie Rayno on Accuweather mentioned this earlier. Just a nowcasting observation.
RAIN IS CHANGING TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING. A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE OVER MANY AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF HARRISBURG BY MIDNIGHT WITH ROADS BECOMING SLIPPERY. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
If we are still reaching which I probably will still be doing, hour 27 this is still east of hatteras, nam is still outside 24 hours that is just a reach. This thing really pops and the moisture field does not represent such a bomb as it hits 988 mb well east of jersey.
Cold air is rushing in from the west. Check out temps on wundergrounds map. It's around freezing N and W of Baltimore right after precip starts. Not a big deal but at least some snow is flying and heavy in spots!