Analysis Of Snowstorm

Saturday Night-Sunday

Well as the models keep rolling in we are having a better and better idea of how this storm is going to play out even though the Gfs was not all that bad because it went west and hit New England with 12+ it  is running out of time to go back west and hit philly.

Now the NAM is still showing this system way east and off the coast I honestley do not think the NAM is having a good handle on this storm. The storm phases too late and ends up way east and barely hits New England. However it does have better precip for the first system around 1-3 as rob said with rain at first.

Cmc seems like it has gone slightly east for the second storm with mostly rain for the first storm. This is what concerns me because they updated this model therefore it is at a very high level right now possibly passing the Gfs level with the update. However, not sure I want to trust it just yet because they could have messed up on something in the system so I'm going to use it as guidence but not for like a complete forecast.

My overall thinking at this point is that this is a very complex system that needs to be watched closely as the Gfs came west a bit. But right now percentages are not where we want them too be.

New England Big hitter- 50%

Philly Big Hitter- 20%

Miss- 30%

I will add more analysis when the Euro comes out

Things can change