So we look at this storm as two parts round one is the cold front with a jet streak ( Burst of snow) and round II is the possible coastal tomorrow night. Here is the breakdown and totals map below.
The NAM took the game up on the first round of warmer temps but more precip to work with on this model. It's a significant jump from last night's run at 00z/7pm vs. this morning's run. Surface temps and ground temps are the key here.
you know - the GFS wasn't all that bad. I did like the fact that the coastal started more west and at the VA/SC border instead of east and mid-VA. If that first L wasn't there to the NE, it would be a different story - IMO.
This is really unbelievable with all the parts. I really think it may take until the 12Zs tomorrow for the mod to really get a handle on the second as the first parts get through.
I've learned more in the last 3 weeks than in the last 2 years!