And so as I sit here and marvel at the incredible snowfall we saw last night, (note the sarcastic tone) I wonder what the heck is wrong??
All winter the pattern, whether flat, troughs, etc., has been very progressive, i.e. fast. Nothing has remained long enough to get players together for us. Even the NE saw this, but at least they got the diamond in the rough. And the signals were HORRIBLE. They remind me of congress. AO and NAO just can't find common ground! and PNA (President) squashed any hope of compromise when they did start talking!
As we wait for the 12Z runs to show us once again, things are moving to fast to get anything going with some great potential of energy flying around, I'm hoping this post will break the pattern. Yes - I AM REACHING!
In college I studied chaos theory - which in simple terms means results of any dynamical system are incredibly sensitive to the initial conditions. This is also sometimes referred to through the term Butterfly effect. In terms of weather this is lightly interpreted as the strength and path of any storm is dependent on how the butterfly thousands of miles away flaps it's wings.
So in a sense, chaos theory means what looks chaotic really is a result of how it started, and in fact is quite structured.
This is used in physics, math, etc., even economics. - Therefore I am assuming the models are subject to this theory.
So I'm fully expecting the 12Zs to show us once again the fast pattern will continue it's depressing runs and take our potential beast this weekend to a puppy - which is already did a few days ago, and not allow for anything big next week, or next and spring is very close. Damn that groundhog!
All my other posts have tried to focus on the facts as best I can interpret them based on the model results - back to the damn butterfly - and I don't think I've been off in stating the potential - but again, I am not a met, just a member who has studied over the last few years, and maybe have finally put some of my degrees to work! LOL!
For this post - I'm going with the opposite approach. Not being negative, but saying the fast pattern will win out on any potential. Hopefully this means results will be opposite of my comments!!
So my call out is the the far west butterflies (I'm thinking China/Russia...or maybe some friendly countries like Australia and New Zealand) to flap your damn wings and change the conditions to prove me wrong!!!
Thanks for viewing.
P.S. one more week of this lousy winter and I'm posting in the 19th hole!!
Freeze-mizer; the models are indeed very much a victim of the effects of the chaos theory, they are dynamic systems that are affected by a massive amount of data input within their initialization data.
Rich - I think the pros do a great job. They interpret data with more training than we do and are able to connect a massive amount of data points better to discuss a possible outcome.
Their passion is weather, more so than us as they have dedicated their lives to education and careers in the field.
The glass can be half-full or half-empty. So it's a matter of their perspective based on data, facts, and physics - they're human too! One minute things look great, then next it all changes. Problem is even in nowcasting, current data is used to project what's next - back to the models, and chaos - as soon as an initial conditions changes, everything changes after that..
I've also seen the mets change, and not be afraid to downgrade based on current conditions. This is a highly volatile field and I think even more challenging in the MA.
Anyway - no issues with your comment, I respect your opinion and feelings. Bottom line, Mother nature let us down!
What i cant understand is why the mets on here haven't caught on to this yet.They keep trying to make goldout of a sows ear.
In spite of the constant "pattern change "' rhetoric this year nothing happened in any way that effected outcomes,but they still continue to follow the models religiously and at the same time said they were for guidance only but never seemed to deviate from them on their own.
Even the nowcasting has been horrible.There were times when timing in nowcasting was ridiculous . A met would say we have 4 more hours of snow when it was obvious looking at the radar that wasn't going to happen.last night the projection for snow until the wee morning hours and that was woefully overstated.
Speaking of the "butterfly effect" how about the call for a cold and stormy winter back in Oct and Nov which set everyones expectations high so that down the road the frustration became even more pronounced.Even now in Feb we were led to believe ti would turn cold and stormy ,really when ?
We have not had what I call one snow storm this year just one nuisance snow after another some not even sticking or when the costing stuck would melt by 12 noon .
haha. Just do the opposite like George Costanza on Seinfeld.
and yes, the pattern is a huge issue. when making a forecast, you have to add in a healthy dose of "pattern" to the "models". and no matter what the models say, the pattern is destroying everything. one would think the models would catch on to this but doesn't seem to be happening.