1. Last night went as planned for most. A coating to about 2" fell last night, which is what most of the local mets and I was expecting. It got a little more interesting as you went west toward central pa, where 3-5" in a very narrow band.
2. Tomorrows night system looks very similiar to this one. Expect a coating to perhaps 2-" in some spots with a weak impulse along a frontal boundary, which will make the weekend feel quite cold again. The 6z GFS brought a storm closer to the coast, but I am not biting this morning.
3. Next week we are looking at a Lakes Cutter early in the week with some snow on the back side of it as it turns quite cold again.
4. Some people are touting impressive "signals" around the 22st, but I am not seeing anything promising at this point. With the NAO staying near neutral and the PNA doing the same, it will be very tough to wrap up any kind of a big storm on the coast. The blizzard last weekend was an anomaly for the pattern we were in, call it a once in a decade or so situation if you will for some areas.
5. Signs of spring are showing up on the models with warmer air running around in the LR and some severe weather as well. I am basically giving this winter about 10 more days before I pull the plug and get ready for the 60 and the occassionakl 70 degree day later in March.
Freeze-mizer, if that were to occur, the trough in the east would amplify and the ridge in the west would respond, almost certainly too late to help us, but it could help later on, it's something to watch for sure.
The challenge with next week is while NAO looks neg, maybe the 50/50 holds, but PNA isn't supportive of any ridging. So progressive flow continues. Only hope is neg NAO and 50/50 low push it enough south as it moves across the country.
I don't think next weeks early storm cuts as far as currently modeled. I think it will head towards lakes/OH valley and redevelop off the coast but too far north for the mid atlantic. There is quite a bit of confluence in Canada being modeled for it just to fly out of the way so fast. It will not benefit us in any way though in this area.
Brian--I am not great in the LR except for summer.....But I am hearing a lot about March starting colder then turning very warm as we head into April as La Nina tries to build back. Cant say for sure 100% though.
wenner, dt over at wxrisk on his facebook page had a good video blog out discussing the 22/23 and why it looks promising.could be why there chatter out there on this.look for this wekends minor threat to set up a 50/50. PNA will be a split flow which he says is neither a neg or positive and signs are that NAO will be negative late next week. weather it pans out only time will tell.If not it Could be last chance for this winter
Two weeks maximum and I think Spring comes in here quickly. Do you see anything in the long range showing 60's around here like last year Wenner? I don't think we will have a repeat of last March but I'll take a 3 or 4 day run of temps flirting with 70. Something about the first warm days and nights of Spring! Gotta love it!
Somethings brewin!! The southern jet looks like it wants to get back in play and the cold air is still hanging around. Late tomorrow night and Saturday morning has my attention(almost looks like a temporary -NAO sets up), but can't argue with a c-2" at this point. I would agree though, that if we don't cash in during the next 10 days it may be game over. Looks like the Pacific may become hostile again and I never get excited about March anymore. Everyone likes to say...wait until March...yea right! The last time we had a real storm in March was 20 friggin years ago.